WSJ's Nick Timiraos: US Labor Data Does Not Justify January Fed Rate Cut

On December 16, Wall Street Journal reporter and noted “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos said current U.S. labor data does not support a Federal Reserve rate cut in January. He noted unemployment rose to 4.564% in November from 4.440% in September, aligning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s view that joblessness will remain broadly stable. Timiraos said the data justifies prior rate cuts but not a January move. Still, interest-rate futures continue to price in two cuts in 2026, while the implied probability of a 25-basis-point January 2025 cut rose from 24.4% to 31%, according to BlockBeats.