Monday, October 5, 2026 — Morning futures brief Top headlines 1) U.S. labor market: Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 last month, below the consensus estimate in institutional surveys. The prior two months were revised down. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, partly reflecting a larger labor force. 2) Iran: Parliament Speaker Kalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until Iran’s conditions are met, adding the U.S. can no longer "buy time" (per Noor News). 3) China coke: Mysteel full-sample survey of independent coke producers shows capacity utilization at 71.23% (+1.07 percentage points) and daily output at 611,700 tons (+9,200). 4) Soybeans: StoneX lifted its 2026 U.S. soybean yield forecast to 54.1 bushels per acre. 5) Malaysia palm oil: SPPOMA data show production in Sept. 1–30, 2026 rose 18.71% month over month. 6) OPEC+: The group decided at Sunday’s meeting to keep November oil production quotas unchanged, marking a second straight month with no change. 7) CME: CME Group said it is suspending the launch of its 10-barrel crude oil futures contract, which had been designed to support 24-hour trading. 8) G7: Leaders reaffirmed they will not impose export restrictions on energy and energy products among G7 members, and urged producing countries to avoid bans that could intensify market strains. 9) France: President Macron said the G7 will release diesel and crude reserves, with up to 100 million barrels to be released over four months. 10) Russia: Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia may partially lift diesel export restrictions if production turns to surplus, noting the domestic diesel market is currently balanced. 11) Malaysia trade policy: A Finance Ministry document dated Oct. 2 said Malaysia will scrap a 10% import duty on certain gold products effective Nov. 1. Macro and geopolitics - U.S. data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that payroll growth slowed to 29,000, with downward revisions to the previous two months. Unemployment rose to 4.2% as labor force participation increased. - Middle East shipping risk: Kalibaf reiterated Iran’s stance on Hormuz. Separately, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Oct. 4 that Iran is willing to facilitate dialogue between Yemen’s Houthi group and Saudi Arabia. - Escalation around Saudi: The Houthis said they fired ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Qurayyat, causing fires. Western and regional officials said Saudi Arabia is considering an offensive to break Houthi pressure on Red Sea shipping lanes. Market snapshot: global futures moves - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.72% to $4,172.10/oz (weekly -3.45%). COMEX silver fell 0.76% to $60.71/oz (weekly -6.31%). - Crude: U.S. crude settled down 1.73% at $91.26/bbl (weekly -1.24%). Brent rose 0.29% to $102.61/bbl (weekly +5.31%). - Base metals (LME): Mixed-to-lower close. Copper +0.16% to $14,266.5/ton (weekly -2.43%); lead -0.19% to $1,853.5/ton (weekly -3.91%); zinc -0.60% to $3,701.5/ton (weekly -5.08%); tin -0.65% to $53,980.0/ton (weekly -0.68%); nickel -0.67% to $15,530.0/ton (weekly -4.89%); aluminum -0.78% to $3,098.5/ton (weekly -5.19%). China steel chain: coke and coal indicators - Mysteel full-sample (independent coke producers): • Capacity utilization: 71.23% (+1.07 ppts) • Daily coke output: 611,700 tons (+9,200) • Coke inventory: 721,400 tons (+40,400) • Total coking coal inventory: 10,162,300 tons (+86,700) • Coking coal days of cover: 12.5 days (-0.08) - Mysteel survey (230 independent coking enterprises): • Capacity utilization: 70.91% (+1.17 ppts) • Daily coke output: 490,200 tons (+8,100) • Coke inventory: 386,400 tons (+26,400) • Total coking coal inventory: 8,534,700 tons (+76,700) • Coking coal days of cover: 13.1 days (-0.1) Agriculture and softs - U.S. soybeans (StoneX): 2026 yield forecast raised to 54.1 bpa from 53.0 bpa (Sept. 8 report). Production estimated at 4.648 billion bushels vs. 4.547 billion previously. - Malaysia palm oil (SPPOMA, Sept. 1–30, 2026): Yield +16.76% m/m; oil extraction rate +0.37% m/m; production +18.71% m/m. - Brazil sugar: The Agriculture Ministry said Center-South sugar output in the first half of September fell 41.6% y/y to 2.12 million tons as rainfall slowed cane crushing. - Canada canola (LSEG): 2026/27 production forecast cut 0.9% to 22.4 million metric tons, citing weaker yield prospects in Manitoba and Alberta. - Brazil soy and corn (StoneX): 2026/27 soybean output forecast nudged down to 183.36 million metric tons from 183.50 million; first-quarter corn forecast unchanged at 29.3 million metric tons. - FAO: The Food Price Index averaged 136.0 in September 2026, up 2.0 points from the revised August reading. Global cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 marketing year were revised up 2.8 million tons to 950 million tons, broadly unchanged from the season start. - China hog margins: For the week ending Oct. 2, profit for self-raised pigs was a loss of RMB 251.9/head vs. a loss of RMB 205.7/head the prior week; profit for purchased piglets was a loss of RMB 174.6/head vs. a loss of RMB 118.0/head. - Malaysia palm exports (SGS): September 2026 exports totaled 955,298 tons, up 2.62% from 930,946 tons in the prior comparable period. Energy and chemicals - Europe diesel / IEA crude release talks (Reuters): EU governments discussed a French proposal for European countries to release 50 million barrels of diesel stockpiles alongside a 50 million-barrel crude release by IEA member countries. Discussions included that any further diesel release agreement should involve a U.S. commitment not to impose a unilateral diesel export ban. - China methanol (Jinlianchuang): September methanol output estimated at about 7.384 million metric tons, slightly higher m/m. October plant utilization is expected to rise, lifting output. September imports estimated at 430,000–450,000 metric tons (about 380,000 metric tons lower than August); October imports seen around 470,000 metric tons, subject to official customs data. - Natural rubber (ANRPC): Global demand in 2026 is forecast to rise 0.4% to 15.356 million tons (2025: 15.301 million). Global production is projected up 0.6% to 15.039 million tons (2025: 14.952 million). - Russia–Saudi talks: Interfax cited Novak as saying Russia and Saudi Arabia will discuss oil market conditions and 2026–2027 forecasts in Riyadh on Oct. 12. - OPEC+ policy: Quotas for November will remain unchanged, extending the current production levels for a second consecutive month. - Iraq shipments: The Iraqi Oil Tanker Company said 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude were transported through the Strait of Hormuz on a VLCC. - U.S. stance: President Trump said he asked Europe to release more diesel to ease fuel-price pressure and said the U.S. will not impose a diesel export ban. - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia set the November official selling price for Arab Light to Asia at a $5 discount to the Oman/Dubai average, $3 lower than the prior month. Metals and EV supply chain - Goldman Sachs highlighted CATL and Zhenli New Energy as key China battery sector targets, arguing market share should keep consolidating among scaled players with technology and cost advantages. CATL remains its top pick. - Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, citing World Automobile Organization statistics, said global auto sales totaled 63.43 million units from January to August 2026. - Malaysia gold: The country will remove a 10% import duty on certain gold products effective Nov. 1 (Finance Ministry document dated Oct. 2). This week: key data and events 1) Oct. 6, 04:00 — USDA weekly crop progress and harvest report. 2) Oct. 7, 00:00 — EIA October Short-Term Energy Outlook. 3) Oct. 7, 22:30 — EIA weekly crude and refined products inventories. 4) Oct. 8, 02:00 — Fed minutes from the September policy meeting. 5) Oct. 8 — Domestic commodity futures exchanges resume trading after the National Day holiday. 6) Oct. 8, 20:30 — U.S. weekly initial jobless claims. 7) Oct. 8, 20:30 — USDA weekly export sales report. 8) Oct. 10, 00:00 — USDA October WASDE report.

Asia-Pacific equities moved higher after weaker U.S. employment figures and an uptick in the jobless rate to 4.2% eased expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. Money markets are pricing the probability of a Fed rate increase in October at below 25%, supporting risk sentiment across the region. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped 2.03% and the Topix gained 1.11%. The Fed is scheduled to release minutes from its September meeting on October 7, offering more detail on policymakers' assessment of inflation trends.

Canary's U.S.-listed spot @trondao ETF has posted activity on just one trading day since its Sept. 10 launch. The fund registered net inflows of $491K on Sept. 15, then saw $0 in daily inflows or outflows on every subsequent session, according to SoSoValue. The muted flow profile highlights limited demand for $TRX in the ETF wrapper.

On-chain analyst Ember (@EmberCN) reports that POAP (@poapxyz) founder @worthalter transferred 4,000 ETH—worth about $10.79 million—to the Gemini exchange around eight hours ago. The transaction is widely seen as a partial sell. Wallet data shows he still holds 54,967 ETH, valued at roughly $149 million.

S&P Global Ratings has introduced a new \u0022Vault Risk Assessment\u0022 framework designed to gauge risk in on-chain digital-asset lending vaults. The firm noted the sector has grown to about $10 billion in deposits.

BlockBeats, Oct. 5 — Security firm Salus said Revenue was involved in a malicious authorization scheme. Attackers used users' permit signatures to grant unlimited spending approval for USDG, then immediately executed transferFrom. Both the approval and the asset transfer occurred within the same transaction, draining victims' wallets. Salus reported that the stolen funds were later split between two hacker-controlled addresses, with 20% sent to one address and 80% to the other. The distribution pattern reportedly mirrors Inferno's drainer-as-a-service model, while the promotion approach resembles the KOL-driven scam tactics associated with FomoPeek. Public information indicates Revenue serves as an off-ramp for X Money. Users can convert funds to cryptocurrency, or transfer cryptocurrency into X Money, without KYC.

The International Monetary Fund has approved a $138 million disbursement for El Salvador after granting a waiver related to the government's ongoing bitcoin accumulation, according to CryptoPotato. The decision follows an IMF review that took into account El Salvador's government-held bitcoin reserve, currently valued at about $666 million. By allowing the tranche to proceed, the Fund signaled that the country's bitcoin approach has not, for now, disrupted its broader financing program. Waivers are typically used to keep a borrower in good standing when specific program targets or restrictions are not fully met. In this case, the waiver tied to bitcoin activity appears to have been a key element in clearing the review and enabling the $138 million payment, which forms part of a larger financing package. El Salvador, under President Nayib Bukele, became the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender in 2021. The move drew sustained IMF criticism over volatility, financial stability and fiscal transparency risks. Negotiations that followed produced a lending arrangement that included limits on government bitcoin activity. The latest review suggests those frictions have not blocked continued IMF support. El Salvador has continued to build its bitcoin position gradually, presenting it as a long-term sovereign asset strategy alongside bitcoin's legal-tender status. While a reserve near $666 million remains small relative to traditional reserve assets, it carries significant symbolic weight given the country's early and high-profile embrace of bitcoin. The outcome is also being watched outside El Salvador. Other governments and sovereign funds have tracked how the IMF handles a member state that holds bitcoin directly on its balance sheet. A waiver—rather than a funding freeze or a formal finding of noncompliance—suggests the Fund may be prepared to accommodate sovereign bitcoin holdings within existing loan frameworks under current market and fiscal conditions. Market impact The IMF's action reduces near-term uncertainty around El Salvador's access to multilateral financing and lowers the risk of a disruption that could have forced abrupt changes to bitcoin holdings or fiscal policy. For crypto markets, the decision offers a reference point for how international financial institutions may adapt to state-level bitcoin ownership. It does not alter bitcoin's underlying fundamentals, but it may be viewed by investors as evidence that institutional and regulatory friction around sovereign bitcoin reserves can be managed without requiring divestment. The waiver and disbursement indicate El Salvador's bitcoin initiative can continue alongside its IMF program for this review cycle. Future reviews will test whether that flexibility holds as reserve valuations and macro conditions evolve. Frequently asked questions What did the IMF approve for El Salvador? The IMF approved a $138 million disbursement under its ongoing financing program with El Salvador after granting a waiver tied to the country's bitcoin accumulation. Why did El Salvador need a waiver related to bitcoin? El Salvador's IMF program includes conditions limiting government bitcoin activity, reflecting the Fund's long-standing concerns about volatility and fiscal risks. How large is El Salvador's current bitcoin reserve? El Salvador's government-held bitcoin reserve is valued at approximately $666 million based on accumulated holdings and current market prices. Does this mean the IMF supports bitcoin adoption? No. The waiver addresses a specific compliance issue within the loan program and is not a broader endorsement of bitcoin as legal tender. Originally reported by AltcoinGordon, written by Noah Sullivan. Republished with permission. View the original on AltcoinGordon →

Odaily Planet Daily reports that as of 08:19 on October 5, data from roughly 200 active addresses each holding positions worth more than $3 million show a pronounced short bias on Hyperliquid. BTC long exposure totals about $518 million versus roughly $830 million in shorts, putting the long-to-short ratio at 0.62. ETH longs stand near $687 million, compared with around $1.05 billion in shorts, for a long-to-short ratio of 0.65.

Tokenomist data as of October 5 show several sizable token unlocks scheduled for the week, led by HYPE with more than $300 million set to be released. On October 5, ENA is expected to unlock about $41.51 million worth of tokens, equal to 1.88% of circulating supply. HYPE is slated to unlock about $339 million, or 1.69% of circulating supply. Additional unlocks include: AERO unlocking roughly $3.53 million on October 8 (0.30% of circulating supply); LINEA unlocking about $1.38 million on October 10 (1.46%); MOVE unlocking around $1.68 million on October 11 (3.80%); IO unlocking about $2.31 million on October 11 (3.20%); and APT unlocking roughly $9.06 million on October 11 (0.64%).