Geopolitics

Israel recently shared intelligence with the United States alleging that Iran is plotting to assassinate Donald Trump, though the claim has not been independently verified, The Wall Street Journal reported. The disclosure comes as Washington and Tehran face rising tensions following renewed military exchanges, after U.S. agencies had already been tracking multiple reports of threats against Trump. Trump said he is “on every list.” The report also said Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have differed over Iran policy, with Netanyahu favoring continued operations and Trump urging a ceasefire to avoid damaging the global economy.

Escalating U.S.–Iran hostilities, including Iranian strikes on U.S. military infrastructure in Gulf states after earlier U.S. attacks on Iran’s southern coastal and eastern provinces, has intensified inflation concerns. CME’s FedWatch tool shows markets pricing a 64% probability of a September U.S. rate hike, up from around 54% a week earlier. Spot gold was headed for a weekly fall of more than 1%, while MCX gold futures slipped to Rs 1,44,860 per 10 grams and silver was on track for a weekly decline of more than 3%. A weaker dollar offered limited support as rate expectations dominated sentiment.

India’s benchmark Sensex and Nifty 50 are poised for a positive start on July 10 as global risk appetite improved after the latest US-Iran military strikes did not trigger a broader escalation and technical-level talks continued. US equities finished higher, with the Nasdaq up 1.3%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 1.94% and South Korea’s KOSPI rose 3.27%. GIFT Nifty futures were up about 105 points versus the previous close, and the Sensex and Nifty 50 rose 0.31% and 0.34% in the prior session.

Israel has shared intelligence with the United States warning that Iran has drawn up a new plan to assassinate President Donald Trump, The Wall Street Journal reported. Trump then said the ceasefire with Iran was “over” and ordered military strikes in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. security measures were raised, including a temporary switch from a new Qatar-gifted Air Force One jet to an older aircraft. The report said the developments signal a more public escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, without citing attacks on specific energy facilities or any actual supply disruption.

The U.S. carried out more than 80 airstrikes on Iran and said a Gulf ceasefire agreement had ended. Brent crude rose 4% to $77 a barrel, while the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.57%. The sudden military escalation has jolted expectations around energy supply security, feeding through to oil, equities and rate-sensitive assets.

After tensions between the United States and Iran escalated, President Trump said the latest exchanges would not lead to “long-term” military action, helping to lift risk sentiment. Brent crude fell 2.2% to $76.30 a barrel, while the average U.S. price of regular gasoline rose 5 cents overnight to $3.85 a gallon, according to AAA. U.S. stocks rebounded, with the S&P 500 up 0.8%, the Dow up 0.3% and the Nasdaq up 1.3%.

A headline asserts that “1,000 Ukrainian drones” hit Russia, but the claim has not been independently verified and is not supported by official statements, casualty figures, or evidence of infrastructure damage. Even if accurate, the described activity would fit within the conventional tactical level of operations in the Russia-Ukraine war, with no sign it marks a strategic turning point. The report provides no specific time, location, targets, or outcomes, leaving key facts unverified. It also offers no direct, immediate price-transmission link to traditional assets such as crude oil, gold, or equity indexes.

Oil prices and U.S. stocks traded more steadily after the United States launched new airstrikes against Iran and Iran hit U.S. allies in the Middle East. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 141 points and the Nasdaq composite added 0.5%. The calmer tone was tied to a temporary geopolitical standoff and uncertainty about what comes next, with no specific oil-price level or evidence of supply disruption cited, according to the report.

The U.S. said it is ending an interim arrangement with Iran, after which Iran said it had struck U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, intensifying Middle East tensions. Crude oil jumped more than 5% in a day, stoking inflation worries, while markets have lifted the probability of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike in September to 68% and by January 2027 to 87%. Gold is being pulled between safe-haven demand and higher-rate expectations, and is now consolidating around a key $4,040–$4,090 per ounce technical band.

U.S. President Donald Trump said the June ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran was “over,” followed by renewed military operations in the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Gulf region. The escalation pushed WTI up 7.4% to $75.69 a barrel, while Brent rose 7.9% to above $80. U.S. stocks ended mixed, with the Dow down 1.09%, the S&P 500 off 0.28%, and the Nasdaq up 0.20%. Energy was the only S&P 500 sector to finish higher, gaining 2.4%.