Macro

Gold futures rose to Rs 1.44 lakh per 10 grams on July 27, supported by a weaker US dollar and a temporary pause in Washington–Tehran hostilities. On Comex, August gold climbed nearly 1% to USD 4,087.69 per ounce in New York. Markets are watching this week’s US Federal Reserve policy decision and remarks from Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on rates and inflation.

The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is down nearly 1% this month and is set for a third straight monthly decline. Over the same period, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 2% from its early-June high. Persistent inflation worries tied to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict have pushed the 2-year Treasury yield above 4.3% and lifted the implied probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike this week to 34%, according to CME FedWatch. The combination of technical and macro pressure is amplifying the risk of losses across both stocks and bonds.

The European Central Bank said it will extend its climate factor from non-financial corporate bonds—less than 2% of pledged collateral—to non-financial corporate credit claims, or loans, which account for 29%. It also set a maximum reduction in collateral value at 5% for both bonds and credit claims, a cap it had not previously disclosed. The changes, which take effect in 2027, are aimed at addressing financial risks linked to the climate transition and reinforce how climate risk is reflected in the euro zone’s monetary policy framework.

Australia is set to release its second-quarter CPI figures on 29 July, with the market looking for headline inflation to hold at 4.0% year on year and the trimmed mean to rise to 3.8%. The RBA cash rate stands at 4.35%, and interest-rate futures imply only a 28% chance of an August hike. A stronger-than-expected reading would materially lift the odds of an August move, while a result below 3.5% would likely push expectations toward September. The CPI release is the key near-term macro driver for AUD/USD.

Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, while the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since January 2025. The combination has sharpened worries about inflation and the prospect of higher Federal Reserve rates, weighing on equities. Alphabet fell 7% in a single session and Tesla slid nearly 15% as investors reassessed risk amid the move in oil and bonds. The piece also flags the upcoming Fed meeting and the next round of major tech earnings as key near-term catalysts.

Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo resigned unexpectedly, and Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti was appointed interim governor. Markets reacted with concern about potential damage to the central bank’s independence, sending the rupiah down as much as 0.14% to 17,960 per dollar and pushing the Jakarta Composite Index down 0.68% early on. The resignation follows a parliamentary bill that strengthened BI’s growth-support role and gave lawmakers binding recommendation powers over financial regulators and the central bank.

Key events this week include interest-rate decisions from the Fed and other central banks, the US June PCE inflation report, and Meta’s second-quarter earnings. Markets are focused on whether core PCE prints above the expected 0.1% monthly rise, which would influence pricing for the Fed’s rate path. A hotter core reading could lift the dollar and real yields, adding pressure to gold. Gold remains in a downtrend and is testing $4,000–$4,050 support; a break below that area could open the door to further declines.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will auction N700 billion of Nigerian Treasury bills on Wednesday through the Debt Management Office (DMO). The sale will cover 91-day, 182-day and 364-day tenors, sized at N100 billion, N100 billion and N500 billion, respectively. The operation is aimed at mopping up about N3.8 trillion of excess liquidity in the financial system while the benchmark interest rate remains at 26.50%. It is positioned as a routine open-market intervention that does not change the monetary policy stance.

VOO, QQQ and DIA are set to be driven this week by a heavy earnings slate from the “Magnificent 7” and other large companies including Visa and Coca-Cola, with average profit growth running at 37.8%, according to FactSet data. The ETFs are also in focus ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday, where markets broadly expect rates to be held at 3.50%-3.75%, even as the probability of a hike this year remains 65%. A third factor is a temporary easing in the U.S.-Iran conflict, which is influencing broader risk appetite. Together, these catalysts are shaping near-term trading in the index-linked funds.

The article says a sudden hawkish turn by the Federal Reserve, reinforced by stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, pushed markets to price out further rate cuts and tightened liquidity, triggering a broad pullback in risk assets. XRP fell to the $1 support level during the move, pressured alongside Bitcoin. It cites a mix of factors including institutional ETF demand, whale accumulation and historical cycle patterns, but says macro headwinds are dominating the near-term outlook and that XRP is in an “area of opportunity,” not a confirmed bottom.