Macro

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas warned that inflation pressures could intensify as the El Niño season approaches and conflict in the Middle East flares up again. June inflation averaged 4.8%, well above the BSP’s 2%-4% tolerance range, while core inflation rose to 4.4%, its highest in nearly three years. The BSP has raised rates by a total of 50 basis points to 4.75%, and markets expect another 25-basis-point increase within the year. Rising oil prices, the peso weakening past 61 per dollar, minimum-wage increases and food-price risks were flagged as persistent upside pressures.

An analysis argues that hawkish officials at the US Federal Reserve are likely to prevail internally and back a rate increase this year as inflation remains elevated. Core PCE rose to 3.4%, while renewed Middle East hostilities, fresh Trump tariff moves and AI-related infrastructure spending are adding to energy and semiconductor costs. The piece says “almost all” FOMC participants judged some additional policy tightening would probably be needed, and it notes oil prices jumped from about $US70 to about $US80 a barrel after the ceasefire with Iran was declared “over”.

The Asian Development Bank lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast for the Philippines to 3.8% from 4.4% in its July 2026 Asian Development Outlook. It also raised its 2026 inflation projection to 5.9% from 4.0%, marking the biggest upward revision among developing Southeast Asian economies. The bank cited delayed investments, softer private consumption amid higher commodity prices, and climate-related risks, alongside higher global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.5% to 3.75% at the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, while overhauling how it communicates about policy. The central bank moved to end forward guidance, issued a noticeably shorter post-meeting statement and declined to publish individual economic projections. The dot plot showed nine of 18 voting members expect a rate hike before the end of 2026, and the year-end PCE inflation forecast was raised from 2.7% to 3.6%.

Chile’s consumer prices were unchanged in June from the prior month, missing market expectations for a decline. Price increases were broad-based, with gains in categories including food and nonalcoholic beverages as well as insurance and financial services. Inflation remains above the central bank’s target, keeping monetary policy restrictive with the policy rate held at 4.5%, while the IMF has warned that global uncertainty could still affect the world’s leading copper producer.

Market maker Wintermute characterized Bitcoin’s recent rebound as a “textbook relief rally.” It attributed the move to marginal easing in macro conditions and a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. Wintermute also pointed to improving headlines around the Ethereum ecosystem and rising institutional-related positive news as additional drivers.

The article says SpaceX’s market value fell 22% within two weeks of listing, even after expectations that Nasdaq index inclusion would spur buying. It adds that AI-linked debt demand has weakened, citing a $US25 billion Amazon bond issue that drew less interest, alongside widening credit spreads. The piece says valuations for AI companies are under pressure, with OpenAI and Anthropic delaying IPO plans as investors question profitability pathways and the durability of capital funding.

Japan’s central government is considering revising how it refers to monetary policy in its annual economic and fiscal agenda to avoid appearing to pressure the Bank of Japan, the Asahi newspaper reported. An earlier draft said the “appropriate conduct” of monetary policy was “very important,” language some read as a signal discouraging further rate hikes. The latest draft adds an inflation reference, calling for policy that contributes to stable price increases, according to the report. The yen was trading around ¥162.30 per dollar in Tokyo on Wednesday morning, near last week’s ¥162.84, its weakest level in 40 years.

Nigeria’s Debt Management Office (DMO) has opened subscriptions for the July 2026 Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Savings Bond, offering 14.716% per annum on a two-year note and 15.716% on a three-year note. Subscriptions run from 6 July to 10 July 2026, with the bonds priced at N1,000 per unit and a minimum investment of N5,000. The DMO said the securities are government-backed, carry tax exemptions, and are listed on Nigerian Exchange Limited for secondary-market trading.

The article says XRP has typically faced a liquidity shock when Japan experiences an RCT or the Bank of Japan tightens policy unexpectedly, with historical short-term drops of 20%–30%. It cites episodes in July 2024 and early 2025 as cases where losses were followed by a rebound. It adds that recoveries often occur within 30 to 60 days as institutional inflows absorb selling pressure. The piece does not state whether such an event is occurring now or point to any specific current policy move.