Commodity

International gold and silver prices extended declines on Friday, with COMEX gold at $4,126.20 an ounce (-0.35%) and COMEX silver at $60.48 an ounce (-0.44%). Brent crude posted its strongest weekly gain since early May, adding to cross-asset volatility. Markets have been pulled by the Federal Reserve meeting minutes pointing to “higher for longer” rates and by rising oil prices linked to U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. A stronger Indian rupee and weak local demand also pushed domestic gold lower for a fourth straight session.

Drewry’s composite World Container Index rose 2% this week to $4,639 per 40foot container. Rates on major lanes including Shanghai–Rotterdam, Shanghai–Genoa and Shanghai–Los Angeles increased by 2%–5%, while some return routes were flat or slightly lower, according to Drewry Supply Chain Advisors. The data points to continued increases in global ocean shipping costs. That trend adds upward pressure on import costs for primary commodities that rely on sea freight.

U.S. wheat futures finished higher across CBOT, KCBT and MIAX on Thursday, with the most-active contracts up 8–12 cents. Weekly USDA export sales showed 313,000 MT of 2026/27 wheat booked, down 45.9% from the same week a year earlier. Taiwan also issued a new tender for 98,000 MT of U.S. wheat. Traders expect Friday’s WASDE to lower U.S. wheat production by 17 mbu and cut world ending stocks by 2.2 MMT to 273.2 MMT, tightening the balance sheet.

ICE cotton futures settled lower across all contracts on Thursday, led by the Jul 26 contract falling 5 points to 76.16 cents/lb. Weekly export sales for 2025/26 totaled 66,422 running bales (RB), nearly triple the same week last year, while new-crop sales reached 86,971 RB, a three-week high. The Cotlook A Index rose 295 points to 90.25 cents and the Adjusted World Price (AWP) climbed 92 points to 62.86 cents/lb. ICE certified stocks edged down 12 bales to 184,927 bales, while the U.S. dollar index slipped 0.034 points.

The Brazilian real has climbed to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar, reducing the incentive for Brazilian producers to sell sugar for export. India’s monsoon rainfall remains 15% below normal, while a shift by Brazilian mills toward ethanol has contributed to a y/y decline in 2026/27 Brazil Center-South sugar output through May. Forecasts from groups including Czarnikow and the International Sugar Organization have moved from surplus to deficit for the global sugar balance. New York raw sugar hit a 1.75-month high and London white sugar reached a 10-month high.

Cocoa futures in New York and London rallied more than 6.6% on Thursday, pushing New York to a six-month high and London to a 9.25-month high. The move followed Barry Callebaut’s report that fiscal Q3 sales volumes rose 5.7%, the first increase in more than two years. Heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana have disrupted logistics and raised disease risks, while an El Niño warning has added to concerns about drier conditions in West Africa. Early surveys for Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop point to an average estimate of 1.8 MMT, down 18% from about 2.2 MMT in 2025/26, even as port arrivals are up 20% year on year and inventories have climbed to a near two-year high.

ICE coffee futures rallied sharply on Thursday, with September arabica up 12.30% and September robusta up 8.07%. The move followed ICE’s decision to raise margin requirements, which thinned liquidity and triggered one-way price swings as many commodity funds exited positions. Prices were also supported by a delayed Brazil harvest—52% complete as of July 1—and forecasts for mid-July rain that could hurt crop quality, while ICE inventories for both arabica and robusta remain low. Although stronger Vietnam exports and expectations for a large Brazil crop have weighed on sentiment, near-term supply disruptions dominated trading.

Cotton futures were mostly lower at midday on Thursday, with the Jul 26 contract down 73 points at 76.21 cents per pound. Weekly export sales for 2025/26 totaled 66,422 running bales (RB), up from the prior week and nearly triple the same week last year. New-crop sales came in at 86,971 RB, a three-week high, while shipments rose to 230,056 RB but were down 10.05% from the same week in 2025. The Cotlook A Index rose Wednesday and ICE certified stocks edged lower, while the Adjusted World Price fell back last week.

Wheat futures in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis traded higher at Thursday midday, with the July CBOT contract up 11 1/2 cents at $6.11 per bushel. USDA weekly export sales totaled 313,103 MT, down 45.86% from the same week last year. The market is looking to Friday’s USDA update, with expectations for U.S. all-wheat production to be lowered by 17 mbu, including a 26 mbu cut for winter wheat. New-crop forecasts were raised for Ukraine and Argentina, while the EU estimate was reduced by 0.9 MMT.

India’s soybean planted area is projected at about 120.7–122.0 lakh hectares, up 5–7% from 2025, with sowing 80–90% complete. In key producing states—Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan—progress is running ahead of official counts, and SOPA estimates 100.31 lakh hectares had been sown nationwide as of July 8. Spot soybean prices of ₹6,700–6,900 per quintal are well above the 2026–27 MSP of ₹5,708, while rainfall has been broadly supportive and crop conditions are normal. The development is influencing physical and futures markets and is a near-term bullish driver for SUSSoybean Futures (SUS).