Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Nov. 6 that the absence of official inflation data during the government shutdown reinforces his cautious stance on further rate cuts, Jin10 reports. "My inclination is to be more careful and slow down when the road ahead is still foggy," Goolsbee said in an interview. The Fed retains access to private labor market data, including the Chicago Fed's new biweekly unemployment estimate, which suggests October unemployment may have risen to 4.4%, the highest in four years. Goolsbee noted that alternative inflation data sources are highly limited, making it harder to detect potential inflation issues.

Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee indicated reluctance to continue the current rate-cutting cycle on November 6, Jin Shi reports. The statement suggests a potential shift in monetary policy stance amid evolving economic conditions.

The Federal Reserve could halt its rate reduction cycle next month as a U.S. government shutdown disrupts official economic data releases, First Abu Dhabi Bank analysts Simon Ballard and Almaha Alnuaimi said on Nov. 6. The analysts noted the shutdown uncertainty may strengthen the case for a December pause, despite objections from board member Michelle Bowman. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated following last week's 25 basis point cut that a December reduction is not guaranteed, Jin10 reports.

Coinbase Europe Limited will pay €21.5 million to the Central Bank of Ireland to settle violations related to technical coding errors in its transaction monitoring systems during 2021 and 2022, the company announced on Nov. 6. The errors affected the platform's cryptocurrency transaction surveillance systems. The Central Bank calculated the penalty based on Coinbase's average annual revenue of €417 million from 2021 to 2024.

The Federal Reserve will likely resume balance sheet expansion before year-end after three years of reduction, according to Joseph Wang, a former New York Fed open market desk trader now active on YouTube as The Fed Guy. Wang said the move aims to maintain control over short-term interest rates rather than prevent risk asset collapses or liquidity crises. He projects the Fed will need to expand its balance sheet by $300B to $500B annually, driven by strong repo demand and the growing Treasury General Account.

Former President Donald Trump announced plans to sign an executive order ending the federal government's "war on crypto" during a speech at the American Business Forum in Miami on Nov. 5, CoinDesk reports. Trump said crypto could significantly reduce the burden on the U.S. dollar and described his vision to make the United States a global hub for digital assets. He called the crypto industry substantial, citing talented entrepreneurs actively engaged in the sector, and expressed his commitment to establishing America as a Bitcoin superpower.

UBS Group analysts project that a U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump's tariff policies could force the government to refund approximately $140 billion to importers, equivalent to 7.9% of the estimated fiscal year 2025 federal budget deficit, according to a November 6 analysis. The bank estimates the government would likely invoke legal mechanisms under Sections 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to rebuild tariff barriers, a process expected to span multiple quarters and reduce trade policy flexibility. UBS suggests such a ruling could ultimately lower the effective tariff rate, enhance household purchasing power, ease inflation pressures, and provide the Federal Reserve with greater room for rate cuts, provided trading partners refrain from escalating retaliatory measures.

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said on Nov. 6 that the Federal Reserve's current quantitative easing constitutes "stimulus to a bubble," contrasting with past QE that served as "stimulus to a depression," BlockBeats reports. Dalio noted that Treasury supply exceeding demand, Fed bond purchases through money printing, and Treasury shortening debt maturity to address long-term bond demand shortfalls represent classic late-stage characteristics of a "big debt cycle." He characterized QE as effectively monetizing government debt rather than injecting liquidity into the private system, given highly stimulative fiscal policy driven by massive existing debt, large deficits, and substantial Treasury issuance at shorter maturities. Dalio described the current approach as a bold and dangerous bet on growth, particularly AI-driven growth, financed through highly accommodative fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies.

The U.S. Supreme Court held oral arguments on Nov. 6 regarding tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, with multiple conservative justices questioning the government's position, BlockBeats reports. The White House and Treasury Department expressed confidence in a favorable ruling, while the corporate sector prepares contingency plans amid uncertainty expected to persist for months. If the tariffs are overturned, the effective U.S. tariff rate would fall to 6.5%, reducing GDP drag to 0.6%, though tax refunds and fiscal deficit concerns would intensify. Bitunix analysts note that judicial risk is affecting macro liquidity expectations, with Bitcoin consolidating between $100,000 support and $105,000 resistance.