UBS: Fed May Gain Rate-Cut Room if Trump Tariffs Overturned Amid Fiscal Strain

UBS Group analysts project that a U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump's tariff policies could force the government to refund approximately $140 billion to importers, equivalent to 7.9% of the estimated fiscal year 2025 federal budget deficit, according to a November 6 analysis. The bank estimates the government would likely invoke legal mechanisms under Sections 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to rebuild tariff barriers, a process expected to span multiple quarters and reduce trade policy flexibility. UBS suggests such a ruling could ultimately lower the effective tariff rate, enhance household purchasing power, ease inflation pressures, and provide the Federal Reserve with greater room for rate cuts, provided trading partners refrain from escalating retaliatory measures.