Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin-focused firm Jan3, argues that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued compared with gold and the global money supply, pointing to a 24%–66% discount to trend and an overextended gold price above $5,247 per ounce. He highlights the Bitcoin-to-gold Z-score, now around -1.24, noting that past drops below -2 or -3 in 2020 and 2022 preceded rallies of more than 150% and 300%. Other market analysts, however, warn that current price action resembles the 2022 bear market and suggest Bitcoin could retreat toward $50,000 despite its recent recovery to around $66,400.

On March 1, macro economist Henrik Zeberg said on X that Bitcoin could top out at $110,000–$120,000 in March 2026, citing risk-on sentiment, ETF inflows, and institutional demand. He also gave a 25% chance of an overshoot to $140,000–$150,000, and projected ETH at $10,000–$12,000 and SOL at $350–$500.

Bitcoin's mining difficulty has climbed about 15% to roughly 144.40T, marking the largest single upward adjustment since around 2021 and arriving while the BTC price trades in the mid-$60,000s with repeated moves toward $65,000. The higher difficulty has pushed hashprice down from about $33.5 to around $29.7 per PH/s/day, narrowing miner margins and increasing the likelihood that some operators will meet cash needs by selling treasury coins, even as network security and block-time stability improve.

On Sunday, chairman Michael Saylor said Strategy will raise the monthly dividend on its perpetual STRC preferred to 11.50% for March 2026, up from 11.25%. A Friday website update confirmed the 25-basis-point adjustment, with the next payout scheduled for March 31 to shareholders of record.

Bitcoin's early 2026 gains faded as the asset fell to a local low of $60,000 in early February and still closed the month with a double-digit percentage loss, marking five straight months in the red. Ethereum's run has been even weaker, with six consecutive negative months and steep drops of 17.7% and 19.6% in January and February while struggling to remain above $2,000.

On March 1, 2026, Michael Saylor said Strategy's Stretch Dividend Rate was raised by 25 bps to 11.50% for March 2026. Critics argue the dividend-centric approach, coupled with debt-funded Bitcoin accumulation, could strain cash flows if BTC stays under key moving averages with leverage still elevated. Supporters frame it as financial engineering aligned with long-term Bitcoin exposure.

On February 28, 2026, Bitcoin derivatives sell volume spiked by $1.8 billion within one hour, according to CryptoQuant, following U.S. strikes on Iran. Analyst Sweep warned the conflict could trigger one of the largest BTC supply events, even as spot prices rebounded to around $66.4k and briefly touched $68k earlier yesterday.

Bitcoin’s February 2026 performance ended with a −14.94% monthly drop, closely echoing the near −17.39% loss recorded in February 2025. As price fell from the $100,000–$105,000 region toward the mid-$60,000 range and slid below the $89,900 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, market stress rose, newer holders capitulated and realized losses spiked to about $4 billion–$6 billion during sharp sell-offs.