Bitcoin began the first week of March 2026 trading above $65,000 despite heightened tensions surrounding the Iran conflict and rising oil prices. Traders and analysts highlighted potential downside targets between $40,000 and $50,000 based on long‑term technical patterns, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs logged over $1 billion in net inflows across three days. Market commentary suggested the military campaign may remain limited in duration due to US inflation concerns, while institutional demand signaled an early shift in how BTC is being accumulated.

On Monday, Bitcoin stabilized above $65,000 after a volatile weekend marked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory actions. As crude prices jumped and major U.S. equity futures fell, roughly $1.8 billion in crypto derivatives were sold within an hour and about $358.7 million in leveraged positions were liquidated. Bitcoin still traded near $65,900, down 1.7% over 24 hours but outperforming many altcoins, with the $64,000–$65,000 zone now seen as a key support area.

On March 1, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued that the latest U.S. military escalation in Iran fits a decades-long pattern in which Middle East conflicts are followed by Federal Reserve easing, providing a long-term boost to Bitcoin. He referenced the 1990 Gulf War and post-9/11 rate cuts to support his view and noted Bitcoin's sharp move between $63,600 and $67,000 around the February 28 reports of strikes and rumors about Iran's Supreme Leader. Hayes recommends waiting for an actual Fed rate cut or renewed money printing before aggressively buying Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies.

On 2 March 2026, Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, argued that Bitcoin is significantly undervalued versus gold and global liquidity, estimating it trades 24% to 66% below its historical trend. He pointed to a BTC-to-gold Z-score of -1.24 as of 1 March 2026 and highlighted that gold’s market cap is still roughly 10 times larger than Bitcoin’s. Mow continues to project a long-term price target of $1 million per BTC and expects further nation-state adoption, while some analysts warn Bitcoin could still retest the $50,000 area amid macro risks.

According to the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, the score fell to 9 last week as BTC slid toward $60,000. This extreme reading has only been seen during the 2018–2019 bear market and the 2022 FTX collapse. Previous instances were followed by months of accumulation and then a steady advance, though results can vary.

Bitcoin slipped beneath $67,000 and hovered near $66,800, down about 2% over 24 hours, after US‑Israel strikes on Iran roiled markets. Oil spiked (Brent up as much as 13%), gold extended gains, and US stock futures fell. BTC briefly hit around $63,255 Saturday before rebounding above $68,000; ETH dropped roughly 10% before stabilizing near $1,950.

Strategy has raised the annualized dividend on its STRC preferred stock from 11.25% to 11.50% for March 2026, with the next monthly payout set for March 31. The move comes as STRC continues to trade around its $100 par value, while Strategy’s common shares and Bitcoin have both fallen sharply, pressuring the firm’s broader capital strategy. The company is increasingly leaning on perpetual preferred offerings to fund ongoing Bitcoin purchases despite a significant drawdown in the crypto market.

Bitcoin rebounded above $67,000 after dropping to $60,030 in the early hours of 28 February. Analyst Benjamin Cowen warns the move may mirror 2022, with a potential $70,000–$84,000 relief rally before a lower high, while CryptoQuant's realized price near $72,700 and CoinGlass liquidation zones at $68,596 and $65,656 shape near‑term risk.