On January 17, Donald Trump announced tariffs starting at 10% on goods from eight European nations, rising to 25% on June 1, a move that coincided with a sharp drop in Bitcoin and other risk assets. Despite the renewed focus on acquiring Greenland, crypto-based prediction markets currently assign only a 20% probability that the U.S. will complete a Greenland takeover by December 31, 2026, and 30% by March 31 this year. Analysts argue that these platforms can offer useful sentiment signals but warn that thin liquidity and speculative trading mean their odds should not be treated as definitive forecasts.

Prediction markets are projected to handle $40 billion in transaction volume in 2025, a more than 400% jump from the prior year, and could begin to rival the $300 billion global sports betting industry in 2026. Driven by platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, analysts expect these markets to evolve into data and "truth" layers that inform fact-checking, risk management, and broader trading decisions.

Bitcoin could drop to between $60,000 and $80,000 by year-end if the Federal Reserve maintains current interest rates at its December 9–10 policy meeting, data show. The probability of a rate cut has fallen to around 40% amid missing labor data. BTC has declined approximately 24% this month as rate-cut expectations weakened.