Global risk appetite rebounded after Donald Trump pulled back from a tougher stance on Iran and hopes rose for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. South Korea’s Kospi surged 18% in a single session, its biggest one-day gain on record, while Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also moved sharply higher. Brent crude fell 4.6% to $83.90 a barrel, reflecting easing supply concerns. Investors are also focused on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which could shift inflation expectations.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX) sank 21% in July, marking its worst month since October 2008. Across all 22 sessions, the index recorded intraday swings of at least 2%, the first time that has happened since 2020. By the end of July, it was down 23% from its June 22 record high, with all 30 constituents lower and more than half down at least 25%. The selloff wiped $2.2 trillion from the group’s market value.

Cracker Barrel said its CEO will step down and the company will be led by former Bloomin’ Brands CEO David Deno, a move that sent the stock down 6% intraday. Deno’s last five-year CEO run ended with Bloomin’ Brands shares down 15%, sharply lagging the S&P 500 and key restaurant peers. Cracker Barrel also reported comparable-store sales down about 2.5% year over year in the latest reporting period, while its customer base skews older—43% are 55 or older and only 23% are under 34—raising concerns about long-term growth.

Meta reported 2024 second-quarter results with net income of $15.85 billion, down 14% year over year, on revenue of $60.8 billion, up 28%. The company’s free cash flow fell 91% from a year earlier. Meta also lifted its 2026 total expense outlook to a range of $165 billion to $169 billion. The earnings update was positioned as a key performance catalyst that highlights capital-efficiency risks tied to its AI strategy and adds fundamental pressure on the stock.

The escalating war in Iran is stoking concerns over Europe’s gas supply security ahead of winter. European spot gas prices jumped nearly 26% in a week as storage levels sit just above 50%, well below the late-July historical norm. Even in a best-case scenario, Europe’s storage would reach only 75% by November, far short of the 90% policy target. Northwestern Europe, including Germany and the Netherlands, faces the sharpest risk of winter supply gaps.

Middle East tensions remain elevated, with no formally announced ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and a dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz still unresolved. Fuel prices are up 15.7% from a year ago and, despite a modest pullback in May–June, remain at high levels. Markets have priced in 10bp of July FOMC tightening, while Bank of America expects three consecutive hikes from September through December. EY-Parthenon says if inflation cannot return to 2% because supply shocks such as the Middle East conflict keep pressure on prices, further monetary tightening would be unavoidable.

A stock-market strategy known as the “Trump Trade” has soured, with Ned Davis Research’s Trump Trade Index down about 16% since May. The firm attributed the slide largely to the U.S. conflict with Iran, which it said has lifted energy prices, inflation expectations, interest rates and the U.S. dollar, weighing on manufacturing and housing. The latest uncertainty also includes new tariff moves, including 50% duties on a range of Canadian products and planned targeted actions under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930.

The European Union has issued two legally binding rules that require Google to open key Android functions to third-party AI assistants and share anonymized search data, with potential penalties of up to 10% of annual global revenue for noncompliance. The measures take effect next year, and the search-data sharing requirement is set to apply by 2027. Separately, TSMC said it will spend another $100 billion to expand U.S. manufacturing, lifting its total commitment in the country to $265 billion. The company also reported a 77% year-on-year jump in Q2 profit to about $22 billion and raised its annual capital-expenditure plan to upwards of $64 billion.

Apple filed a lawsuit on Friday accusing OpenAI of stealing trade secrets through former employees and io Products, the hardware firm OpenAI acquired last year. The 41-page complaint alleges the misappropriation of confidential information including unreleased products and supply-chain details, and argues OpenAI’s hardware effort is built on unstable ground. OpenAI said it has no interest in other companies’ trade secrets.