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Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan: Crypto Isn't the Market's 'Belle of the Ball' Anymore
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says today's "brutal" crypto market is no longer the market's "belle of the ball," arguing that digital assets are increasingly being treated as a contrarian trade rather than a momentum play.
In a recent memo, Hougan outlined three forces shaping the backdrop. First, he said crypto is struggling to draw fresh enthusiasm as prices stay under pressure and momentum fades. Year to date, Bitcoin is down 24%, while Ethereum has fallen 36%, Solana 40%, and XRP 32%. Exchange-traded funds have also seen outflows, and spot trading volumes have slid to their lowest levels in years.
Hougan tied part of the softness to investors' growing focus on artificial-intelligence-related opportunities, spanning AI stocks, robotics companies, and private firms such as SpaceX. He noted the Nasdaq-100 is up 43% year over year.
With AI dominating risk appetite, Hougan said crypto is shifting from an excitement-driven momentum trade into a contrarian bet that demands patience, a long-term horizon, and attention to fundamentals. He said that helps explain why investors are placing more emphasis on revenue and favoring projects with clearer fundamentals, citing Hyperliquid as an example. In his view, crypto isn't going away, but it is changing which investors participate and which projects get rewarded.
Hougan's second headwind is regulatory uncertainty around the Clarity Act, a proposed U.S. market-structure bill aimed at creating a comprehensive framework for cryptocurrencies. While the legislation recently cleared a hurdle in the Senate, Hougan pointed to prediction market Polymarket, which currently puts the odds of approval before year-end at 55%. He added that Washington insiders he spoke with pegged the chances much lower, in a 5% to 30% range.
Hougan said the uncertainty is keeping institutions on the sidelines: they can either deploy capital into fast-rising AI-related assets or allocate to crypto while risking a major regulatory setback. He argued large-cap crypto is unlikely to sustain a rally until the policy overhang is resolved. He also said the resolution matters more than the outcome, because crypto can adapt whether the bill passes or fails, but struggles to thrive while uncertainty persists.
Stepping back, Hougan said this drawdown looks different from past crypto bear markets. Instead of rotating into Bitcoin, he sees flows moving into smaller, less established tokens with "credible fundamentals." He highlighted one-month gains of 73% for Hyperliquid, 50% for Zcash, and 44% for Stellar, even as larger assets declined. Hougan said the rotation underscores the market's growing focus on fundamentals and suggested crypto may be "closer to the end of this winter than the beginning," while warning the next few weeks could still be "painful."
Not everyone agrees. Analyst Doctor Profit has repeatedly warned the worst may still be ahead, expecting Bitcoin to enter a capitulation phase below $60,000 and ultimately bottom in the $40,000–$50,000 range between September and October 2026. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has also cautioned that the current bear market could stretch into early 2027.
The post "Crypto Is No Longer the 'Belle of the Ball,' Warns Bitwise's Matt Hougan" appeared first on CryptoPotato.