Ethereum Could Slide Toward $1,000 as Chart Signals and On-Chain Metrics Weaken
Ethereum remained under pressure this year as both chart signals and network fundamentals deteriorated. ETH changed hands around $1,665 on Friday, about 50% below its yearly high and near its lowest level since April 2025, keeping downside risks in focus.
Chart setup points to further downside
ETH has fallen to $1,665, and the decline could extend in the coming weeks or months. On the chart, the token appears to have formed an inverted cup-and-handle formation, a bearish continuation pattern. The upper boundary sits near $2,455 and the lower boundary near $1,800, implying a pattern height of $655. Using the standard projection method, subtracting that height from the cup's lower side yields a target around $1,155. A break below that area would leave room for a move toward the psychological $1,000 level.
Other technical factors also lean bearish. ETH is gradually developing a bearish pennant and is currently trading in the triangle portion of the formation. The token has also stayed below the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages; bulls would need a move back above those levels to confirm a rebound.
Spot ETH ETF outflows persist
A key headwind has been continued selling in U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs. Data show spot ETH ETFs saw more than $15 million of net outflows on Thursday, extending a daily streak that began on June 9. The funds have recorded outflows for five consecutive weeks, taking monthly withdrawals to more than $183 million.
May was also weak, with more than $540 million of net outflows. Year-to-date outflows have climbed past $1 billion. BlackRock's iShares Ethereum ETF (ETHA) holds more than $4.7 billion in net assets, while Grayscale's ETH and ETHE stand at $1.47 billion and $1.31 billion, respectively.
Staking inflows offer a rare bright spot
One supportive datapoint is rising staking activity. Over the past 30 days, investors added more than 834,000 ETH worth over $1 billion to staking pools. The increase is likely tied to ongoing staking activity from Tom Lee's BitMine.
Fundamentals losing momentum in DeFi, DEX and RWA
Beyond price action, Ethereum's fundamentals have cooled versus prior months and years. While its market share remains significant, its role across several crypto segments has been slipping, weighing on fee generation.
Total value locked (TVL) has fallen to $37 billion from about $95 billion a few months ago. Lido's TVL is down 25% over the past 30 days. Aave, Spark, EigenCloud, Morpho, Ether.fi and Grove Finance have each dropped more than 20% over the same period.
In decentralized exchange activity, Ethereum has been overtaken by Hyperliquid. Hyperliquid processed more than $240 billion in volume over the past 30 days, compared with $37 billion on Ethereum during that timeframe.
A similar slowdown is visible in real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. The value of distributed assets on Ethereum declined 7% over the past 30 days to just over $16 billion.
The weaker activity is showing up in fees. Network fees totaled $5.59 million so far this month, down from $16 million last month. Monthly fees have trended lower since peaking at $41 million in October last year.
