U.S. payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, well below the 100,000 economists expected, sharpening market expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady. Fed funds futures now imply an 80% probability of no hike at the meeting later this month. U.S. stocks climbed, with the S&P 500 up 0.4%, the Dow up 0.5% and the Nasdaq up 0.3%, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.47%. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $70.68 a barrel as Micron gained 2% and AMD fell 1.5%.

美国科技巨头周一集体下跌，Alphabet跌6%创2025年5月以来最大单日跌幅，预计蒸发超2560亿美元市值；Amazon跌4.8%，Meta与Microsoft各跌约3%。SpaceX IPO后连续三日下跌，宣布发行票据。市场担忧AI基础设施巨额资本开支尚未兑现清晰回报。芯片供应商Micron逆势涨5.8%创新高，并宣布与Anthropic合作。

The Fed’s dot plot showed nine officials expect at least one rate increase by the end of the year, pushing the 2-year Treasury yield up 9 basis points to 4.14%. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, while the Nasdaq also lost 0.6%. The Dow swung from a 281-point gain to a decline of 86 points. The drop was attributed to higher-for-longer rate expectations weighing on equity valuations, with no offsetting or easing signal offered in the report.

美联储在6月议息会议上维持基准利率不变，但删除了此前关于2026年可能降息的措辞，并有9名官员预计年内将加息；新任主席凯文·沃什主导下，政策声明大幅简化，强调‘充足准备金’并上调2026年通胀预期至3.6%。此举标志货币政策转向偏鹰，结束自2024年秋季以来的宽松预期。

Ontario has signed a statement of intent with the United Kingdom to cooperate on critical minerals, with a focus on diversifying supply chains for nickel, lithium and cobalt and reducing reliance on China. The province said the agreement does not include direct investment commitments, but it sets a policy framework that could help open UK downstream markets for Canadian nickel projects such as Canada Nickel’s Crawford development. The Crawford project remains in the federal approval process, and the company is aiming to secure financing by the end of the year and start construction in 2027. Gold was mentioned only in general terms as an “important commodity” and is not part of specific cooperation mechanisms or a direct price driver linked to this deal.

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the first policy meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, while dropping phrasing such as “additional adjustments” that had hinted at possible rate cuts. May retail sales rose 0.9% month on month, far above expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation pressures remain sticky. The latest economic projections are expected to show most officials no longer anticipating rate cuts this year, with some even leaning toward an increase. That shift has weighed on expectations for commodity demand, adding pressure to crude oil and gasoline prices.

U.S. President Donald Trump said at the G7 summit that Washington could soon reimpose sanctions on Russian oil shipments that had been eased to help cool oil prices, citing renewed oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. temporarily loosened some restrictions in March and extended the waiver as the war in the Gulf dragged on. The U.K. separately announced new sanctions targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” used to ship oil and gas and financial networks used to evade Western measures, including vessels tied to the Arctic LNG 2 project.