Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs Draw $37.8M in Inflows as U.S.-Iran Tensions Rise

CoinDesk reported that on April 24, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $14.45 million of net inflows and spot Ethereum ETFs took in $23.38 million, bringing total inflows for the day to $37.8 million. Bitcoin slipped toward $60,000 in April, and the market is pricing a 0% "YES" probability for BTC touching $60,000 this month. Ongoing ETF buying has lowered the perceived odds of a drop to that level, even as overall trading conditions remain subdued. With tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalating, some institutional investors appear to be treating Bitcoin as a safe-haven allocation. For June 30, the market assigns a 3.5% "YES" chance that Bitcoin sets a new all-time high, up from 3% the prior day. The low reading suggests traders remain skeptical that a fresh record can be reached before July. Longer-dated pricing is more constructive: September 30 is at 11% "YES" and December 31 at 18.5% "YES", implying sustained ETF inflows could support a more extended bullish thesis. Ethereum’s $23.38 million inflow points to rising institutional interest, even as activity remains muted and ETH trades around $4,000 in April. At Bitcoin’s all-time-high price, 24-hour volume totaled $8,027 in face value, with $917 in actual USDC traded. Order-book depth suggests a 5-point move on June 30 required $959 in orders, indicating moderate liquidity. The biggest move was recorded on September 30 at 3:34 PM, when a large order lifted the price by 2 points. At current prices, "YES" shares purchased at the June 30 high are valued at $1, a 28.57x return. For that wager to be sustained, traders will be watching for continued capital inflows and any easing in geopolitical risk. Market participants are also monitoring any updates from BlackRock or Fidelity on ETF strategy, along with Federal Reserve signals on interest-rate policy, all of which could shift sentiment.