Iran Signals Strait of Hormuz Transit Will Resume Under Its Rules After Conflict

CoinDesk reports that Iran's deputy defense minister said post-conflict shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will proceed under procedures set by the Islamic Republic. Authorities expect traffic to normalize on May 15. Market pricing indicates 59.5% "Yes," up 20% from a day earlier. After the statement, the asset gained 40 points over 24 hours as traders read the comments as a sign of a managed reopening during the 2026 Hormuz Strait crisis. Gen. Michael Kurilla and other key participants remain involved in negotiations. Liquidity conditions show $36,459 in daily volume (USDC-denominated). A 5-point move requires $4,658, pointing to steady order flow. The latest notable move came at 3:48 PM with a 2-point spike, underscoring sensitivity to headlines. The key issue is definition: Iran's reference to an "Islamic Republic Agreement" implies any reopening would be on Iran's terms rather than a return to pre-crisis conditions. Whether regulated passage satisfies the contract depends on how the market's resolution criteria define "ordinary" traffic restoration. Traders are watching two primary catalysts: an end to the U.S. blockade and confirmation that mine clearance has been completed. Updates from U.S. Central Command and statements from Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs are likely to shape expectations for whether the May 15 timeline is achievable. Contract snapshot: "Yes" at 60 cents; pays $1 if resolved; 1.67x back. API access available.