Following a broad crypto market crash in early October, Bitcoin has continued to decline, breaking several support levels and trading around $88,260 with little daily movement. On-chain analyst Maartunn reports that the Coinbase Premium Gap has fallen to -$57, indicating that US-based traders are selling more aggressively than offshore markets. Historically, extended negative readings have sometimes preceded market bottoms, but a deeper decline without new demand could keep Bitcoin under pressure unless the premium turns back toward neutral or positive territory.

CryptoQuant data shows addresses labeled as new Bitcoin whales now represent almost 50% of Bitcoin’s realized cap, a level that seldom topped 22% before 2025. Analysts add that short‑term holder supply grew by roughly 100,000 BTC in 30 days, while exchange flows indicate around 37% of BTC sent to Binance came from 1,000–10,000 BTC wallets.

On December 20, Bitcoin hovered near $88,222 after a 0.25% rise over the past 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap, weekend momentum leans bullish, while the hourly range spans $87,791 to $88,522. A sustained break above $90,000 is seen as necessary for upside, with low volume hinting at muted volatility into month‑end.

On 20 December 2025, CryptoQuant warned Bitcoin may have shifted into a bear phase driven by fading demand rather than panic selling. Its on-chain metrics highlight weaker U.S. spot ETF inflows, slower growth among 100–1,000 BTC wallets, and softer perpetual funding, with $70,000 eyed near term and $56,000 (realized price) a later target if demand fails to recover.

Recent Bitcoin ETF red days look alarming, but the data shows limited withdrawals relative to assets while derivatives exposure declines. Outflows are around 2.5% of BTC-denominated AUM, roughly $4.5 billion, and CME futures open interest is near $10.94 billion, down from about $16 billion in early November. The pattern suggests structured trades are being unwound rather than a broad investor exit.

As of December 20, 2025, new Bitcoin whales account for nearly 50% of the asset's realized cap, up from 22% before this year. Corporate treasuries span 151 firms holding over 1 million BTC, and U.S. spot ETFs have recorded year‑to‑date inflows above $22 billion, highlighting rising institutional demand and firmer price bases.

Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy Sean Farrell has told private clients that Bitcoin could retreat to a $60,000-$65,000 range in the first half of 2026, with Ethereum and Solana also projected to revisit significantly lower levels. The call follows a prolonged failure by Bitcoin to reclaim $100,000, weakening technical indicators, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reportedly turning into net sellers in Q4 2025.

Three newly created Bitcoin wallets moved about 2,509 BTC from a FalconX hot wallet within 24 hours, totaling roughly $221 million. A macro chart linking BTC with the ISM PMI argues the strongest rallies arrive with economic expansion, while Bitcoin dominance is testing resistance that some view as a potential trigger for altcoin rotation.