Two crypto analysts argue Bitcoin remains in a bear market and may be in its final bearish phase. One expects the cycle to potentially bottom between $47,000 and $51,000 around October 2026, while another sees a possible drop to $54,000 next week and a deeper low near $47,000 by July 2026. Both forecasts frame the period as marked by weak sentiment and choppy price action.

Bitcoin rose from $62,300 to $63,700 in roughly an hour after President Donald Trump said the US would not carry out scheduled strikes on Iran. In the same window, oil fell sharply from above $91 to below $87, while ETH moved back near $1,700, BNB returned to $600, and SOL gained 5% on the day to $67.

Bitcoin steadied above $62,500 and later moved back over $63,000 after a 1:28 p.m. EDT post from U.S. President Donald Trump, following a June 10 rebound back through $62,000. In parallel, May U.S. wholesale inflation surprised to the upside, with the producer price index (PPI) rising 1.1% and the annual rate reaching 6.5%. BTC was quoted at $63,280 at press time, while analysts cautioned that an extended Strait of Hormuz conflict could pressure rates and growth.

Market analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera said Bitcoin has moved within 9% of its realized price near $53,600, a level he argues has historically aligned with bear-market endings. He contends the latest decline lacked classic capitulation, citing 187,000 BTC sold at a loss last week versus 1.2 million BTC during the 2022 washout, while demand fell by 652,000 BTC. Perera also pointed to negative spot Bitcoin ETF flows and said steady long-term holder behavior could still support a bullish interpretation.

On June 11, President Donald Trump issued a warning toward Iran that mentioned potential U.S. control of Kharg Island, as traders simultaneously digested a U.S. producer inflation print showing PPI at 6.5%. Markets reacted unevenly: Brent stayed near $92 and WTI near $90, while bitcoin traded around $62,872 and ethereum near $1,645 amid concerns over both geopolitics and rate-cut expectations.

Bitcoin is holding the $59K-$62K demand zone after a sharp drop from above $73K, with price recently hovering around $62.7K. The analysis says BTC must regain $66K-$67K and then confront resistance near $73K-$74K; otherwise, a breakdown pattern could send it back to the $60K area and possibly $59K. On-chain, realized price is around $53.5K while spot sits near $62.5K, suggesting cycle support but not ruling out additional short-term pullbacks.

Advisor Adam Livingston said Bitcoin could reach $256,000 within 12 months, arguing BTC looks unusually cheap versus tokenized gold (XAUT). He cited a June 11 X post claiming the gold-to-Bitcoin ratio sits about 76% below its long-term power-law fair value and that a reversion would imply BTC roughly quadrupling against gold.

Bitcoin is trading around $62,000 and sits more than 50% below its all-time high as two major demand supports—ETF flows and corporate accumulation—appear to be weakening. In a market note, Glassnode said corporate-treasury net inflows dropped as BTC slid from the mid-$70Ks toward $60K, after earlier periods of $500 million+ in daily buying through April and May. The article also cites Strategy's late-May sale of 32 BTC and a subsequent $100 million dip buy that did not prevent a move below $60,000.