U.S. Midterms Enter Final Stretch; Markets Begin Repricing 2028 Presidential Policy Risks

BlockBeats News, Oct. 29 — With U.S. midterm elections entering their final stretch, investors are weighing how a possible shift in congressional control could ripple through markets and prompt an early repricing of policy expectations for the 2028 presidential race. A Democratic sweep of both chambers would likely deepen gridlock for domestic legislation during the remaining two years of Trump’s second term. The federal budget, the debt ceiling and rules for AI data center development are seen as likely partisan flashpoints. Chris Grisanti, chief market strategist at MAI Capital Management, sees a strong chance Republicans hold the Senate. A Republican Senate hold could spark a short relief rally in stocks; the election effect is likely to fade quickly. Rami Sarafa, CEO of Cordoba Advisory Partners, said Democratic gains in Congress could lead to adjustments in healthcare policy and greater resistance to AI data center expansion. Long project development cycles mean the election results will not abruptly end the AI investment boom. Beyond near-term legislative gridlock, the 2028 presidential election may drive broader shifts in policy expectations. J.P. Morgan Geopolitical Research Center flags three themes to watch after the midterms: domestic policy gridlock, Trump’s pursuit of a political legacy and the launch of the 2028 presidential campaign. Its analysis covers Iran and the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Latin America and NATO. J.P. Morgan analysts said the midterms will begin the debate over the direction of U.S. policy beyond 2028.