U.S.-Iran agreement said to be close; oil slides more than 5%

BlockBeats reports that on May 25, international crude futures opened sharply lower on growing expectations that the United States and Iran are nearing an agreement. As of publication, both WTI and Brent futures were down more than 5%. U.S. President Donald Trump said talks were "getting closer" to a deal, while later noting it was "not yet fully finalized." Markets have moved to price in lower geopolitical risk. Analysts attributed the drop largely to expectations that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will steadily normalize. Iran said 33 vessels, including tankers, transited the Strait over the past 24 hours, signaling a marked improvement in shipping conditions. Wu Yan of Longzhong Information said early signs of a U.S.-Iran peace arrangement have delivered a long-awaited positive signal. Han Zhengji of Jinlianchuang said that if an agreement is ultimately implemented, crude may fall further as the geopolitical premium fades, while any renewed deterioration could trigger a rapid rebound. Several analysts cautioned that the global crude market still faces a supply shortfall. With output in multiple Gulf countries not yet back to normal and the Northern Hemisphere heading into peak summer fuel demand, prices may stay high and volatile in the near term. Wu Yan forecasts Brent at $87–$110 per barrel from June through August.