Bitcoin hovered around $69,800 as a record $7.1 trillion notional options expiry hit markets, with roughly $5 trillion tied to the S&P 500 and $880 billion to single stocks. Crypto sentiment was weak heading into Friday, with the Fear and Greed Index at 30 after a recent low of 23. The week’s event risk also includes $13.5 billion in crypto derivatives expiring on Deribit on March 27 and recent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows led by IBIT and FBTC.

A long-inactive Satoshi-era Bitcoin wallet made a small test transfer after nearly 14 years, moving about $47 in BTC from “1NB3Z…QB6ZX” to a new address at 10:27am UTC on Friday. The wallet still holds 2,100 BTC valued at nearly $148 million at current prices, after acquiring the coins in July 2012 for roughly $6.5 each (about $13,685 total). The move does not confirm an imminent sale, though whale activity is often watched for short-term market signals.

Bitcoin fell nearly 5% after a strong start to the week, moving lower alongside major US equity indexes and gold as the US and Israel–Iran war entered a fourth week. Over the past three months, outflows from S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETFs hit $64 billion, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $253 million leave over the past two days. Analysts cited weaker liquidity and geopolitical uncertainty as factors weighing on demand, with some flagging downside levels such as $55,000–$60,000.

Bitcoin's 100+ BTC "shark and whale" wallet cohort expanded even as the spot price trended lower over the past three months. Santiment said the address count for this group increased by 753 since Dec. 19, a 3.9% gain, and was up 2,148 addresses (12%) versus March 19, 2025. BTC has also dipped below the $70,000 level after its latest pullback.

Bitcoin has returned to a $65,000–$74,000 range and was trading around $69,000 after a brief move toward ~$76,000 failed earlier in the week. Several options-market indicators point to lower near-term volatility but more defensive positioning into late March, with clearer sentiment expected after the March 27 quarterly expiry.

Bitcoin stayed pinned near $70,000 on Friday as Deribit's March options settlement—24,838 contracts worth $1.72 billion—centered price around the "max pain" strike. In the broader market, 141,810 traders were liquidated over 24 hours for $541 million, led by $191 million in Bitcoin and $165 million in Ether liquidations. Long positions accounted for $443 million of the total losses, while shorts lost $97 million.

Bitcoin ETFs recently shifted from seven days of inflows to roughly $250 million in outflows over the past two days, and BTC fell about 5.5% to around $70k in the same window. The move was framed as macro-driven, following an inflation report that reduced expectations for a near-term rate cut, while Morgan Stanley's latest spot Bitcoin ETF filing with the SEC adds another potential catalyst amid risk-off conditions.

Crypto market commentator Sykodelic posted on X on March 17 arguing that Bitcoin’s current cycle should not be read through the popular four-year framework. He said the model is based on only two historical data points and is anchored to time rather than economic conditions, while the business cycle offers a more grounded way to gauge where the market stands.