Technical Analysis

Bitcoin traded above $103,000 with a 1% gain in 24 hours after the week's decline. Technical analysts warn that sustained weekly closes below the 50-week moving average at $102,000 have historically preceded market tops. Year-to-date performance shows gold and the S&P 500 now outpace Bitcoin returns despite favorable conditions including rate cuts and regulatory developments.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood lowered the firm's long-term bitcoin price projection by approximately $300,000, attributing the adjustment to stablecoins' expanding adoption in emerging markets. Wood noted that stablecoins now fulfill payment and savings functions previously expected for bitcoin, directly impacting ARK's bullish scenario modeling. The revision references ARK's earlier forecasts, though the firm had raised its 2030 bull-case target to $2.4 million in April.

Bitcoin has dropped below $104,000 and the 100-hour simple moving average, failing to hold above $105,000. The cryptocurrency declined to $98,900 before attempting a modest recovery. Bears remain active near $104,000, limiting upward momentum as the asset trades below key technical levels.

Galaxy Digital cut its Bitcoin year-end 2025 price target from $185,000 to $120,000, according to the firm's head of research Alex Thorn. The revision reflects increased leveraged liquidations and whale distributions exceeding 400,000 BTC. Japan's Metaplanet drew $100 million from its Bitcoin-backed credit facility to expand holdings, while Swiss custody startup Future raised $34.5 million in funding.

Investment firm Galaxy reduced its year-end 2025 Bitcoin price target to $120,000 from $185,000, reflecting structural changes driven by institutional adoption. Head of research Alex Thorn described the shift as Bitcoin entering a "maturity era," with lower volatility as ETF and traditional finance capital reshape price behavior. The firm maintains a constructive long-term outlook despite the revised forecast.

Bitcoin's social sentiment hit its third most bearish level in six months, even as on-chain metrics remain stable. BTC fell below $100,000, down roughly 20% from its all-time high. Analyst Nic Puckrin suggests this magnitude of correction may present a buying opportunity rather than signaling fundamental deterioration.

The XRP Ledger's decentralized exchange processed 954,000 transactions on November 4, marking an all-time high for the platform, data show. XRP traded at $2.21, down from over $3 in early October, highlighting a divergence between network activity and price performance.

Balancer confirmed on November 5 that a rounding error in V2 Composable Stable Pools enabled the $128 million exploit that occurred on November 3. The vulnerability allowed attackers to manipulate batch swaps and drain funds across Ethereum, Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, Sonic, and Avalanche. White-hat teams have recovered $33 million to date, while Balancer's Total Value Locked declined 58% from $442.96 million to $186.09 million between November 3 and November 7.

Bitcoin dropped below its 365-day moving average of approximately $102,000 this week, a technical threshold last broken in early 2022. CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index fell to zero for the first time since June 2022, indicating extremely bearish sentiment. Analysts caution that sustained trading below this level could drive prices toward $72,000 support.

Litecoin traded near $88 with a 3% daily gain following two major developments. The SEC approved the Canary Litecoin ETF, marking the first spot LTC fund available to institutional investors. Separately, Litecoin creator Charlie Lee joined SilentSwap as strategic advisor to advance privacy-focused cross-chain solutions.