OPEC+ Holds November Output Targets as Jobs Data Misses and Energy Risks Build

Monday, October 5, 2026 — Morning futures brief Top headlines 1) U.S. labor market: Nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 last month, below the consensus estimate in institutional surveys. The prior two months were revised down. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, partly reflecting a larger labor force. 2) Iran: Parliament Speaker Kalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until Iran’s conditions are met, adding the U.S. can no longer "buy time" (per Noor News). 3) China coke: Mysteel full-sample survey of independent coke producers shows capacity utilization at 71.23% (+1.07 percentage points) and daily output at 611,700 tons (+9,200). 4) Soybeans: StoneX lifted its 2026 U.S. soybean yield forecast to 54.1 bushels per acre. 5) Malaysia palm oil: SPPOMA data show production in Sept. 1–30, 2026 rose 18.71% month over month. 6) OPEC+: The group decided at Sunday’s meeting to keep November oil production quotas unchanged, marking a second straight month with no change. 7) CME: CME Group said it is suspending the launch of its 10-barrel crude oil futures contract, which had been designed to support 24-hour trading. 8) G7: Leaders reaffirmed they will not impose export restrictions on energy and energy products among G7 members, and urged producing countries to avoid bans that could intensify market strains. 9) France: President Macron said the G7 will release diesel and crude reserves, with up to 100 million barrels to be released over four months. 10) Russia: Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia may partially lift diesel export restrictions if production turns to surplus, noting the domestic diesel market is currently balanced. 11) Malaysia trade policy: A Finance Ministry document dated Oct. 2 said Malaysia will scrap a 10% import duty on certain gold products effective Nov. 1. Macro and geopolitics - U.S. data: The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that payroll growth slowed to 29,000, with downward revisions to the previous two months. Unemployment rose to 4.2% as labor force participation increased. - Middle East shipping risk: Kalibaf reiterated Iran’s stance on Hormuz. Separately, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said on Oct. 4 that Iran is willing to facilitate dialogue between Yemen’s Houthi group and Saudi Arabia. - Escalation around Saudi: The Houthis said they fired ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities in Riyadh and Qurayyat, causing fires. Western and regional officials said Saudi Arabia is considering an offensive to break Houthi pressure on Red Sea shipping lanes. Market snapshot: global futures moves - Precious metals: COMEX gold fell 0.72% to $4,172.10/oz (weekly -3.45%). COMEX silver fell 0.76% to $60.71/oz (weekly -6.31%). - Crude: U.S. crude settled down 1.73% at $91.26/bbl (weekly -1.24%). Brent rose 0.29% to $102.61/bbl (weekly +5.31%). - Base metals (LME): Mixed-to-lower close. Copper +0.16% to $14,266.5/ton (weekly -2.43%); lead -0.19% to $1,853.5/ton (weekly -3.91%); zinc -0.60% to $3,701.5/ton (weekly -5.08%); tin -0.65% to $53,980.0/ton (weekly -0.68%); nickel -0.67% to $15,530.0/ton (weekly -4.89%); aluminum -0.78% to $3,098.5/ton (weekly -5.19%). China steel chain: coke and coal indicators - Mysteel full-sample (independent coke producers): • Capacity utilization: 71.23% (+1.07 ppts) • Daily coke output: 611,700 tons (+9,200) • Coke inventory: 721,400 tons (+40,400) • Total coking coal inventory: 10,162,300 tons (+86,700) • Coking coal days of cover: 12.5 days (-0.08) - Mysteel survey (230 independent coking enterprises): • Capacity utilization: 70.91% (+1.17 ppts) • Daily coke output: 490,200 tons (+8,100) • Coke inventory: 386,400 tons (+26,400) • Total coking coal inventory: 8,534,700 tons (+76,700) • Coking coal days of cover: 13.1 days (-0.1) Agriculture and softs - U.S. soybeans (StoneX): 2026 yield forecast raised to 54.1 bpa from 53.0 bpa (Sept. 8 report). Production estimated at 4.648 billion bushels vs. 4.547 billion previously. - Malaysia palm oil (SPPOMA, Sept. 1–30, 2026): Yield +16.76% m/m; oil extraction rate +0.37% m/m; production +18.71% m/m. - Brazil sugar: The Agriculture Ministry said Center-South sugar output in the first half of September fell 41.6% y/y to 2.12 million tons as rainfall slowed cane crushing. - Canada canola (LSEG): 2026/27 production forecast cut 0.9% to 22.4 million metric tons, citing weaker yield prospects in Manitoba and Alberta. - Brazil soy and corn (StoneX): 2026/27 soybean output forecast nudged down to 183.36 million metric tons from 183.50 million; first-quarter corn forecast unchanged at 29.3 million metric tons. - FAO: The Food Price Index averaged 136.0 in September 2026, up 2.0 points from the revised August reading. Global cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 marketing year were revised up 2.8 million tons to 950 million tons, broadly unchanged from the season start. - China hog margins: For the week ending Oct. 2, profit for self-raised pigs was a loss of RMB 251.9/head vs. a loss of RMB 205.7/head the prior week; profit for purchased piglets was a loss of RMB 174.6/head vs. a loss of RMB 118.0/head. - Malaysia palm exports (SGS): September 2026 exports totaled 955,298 tons, up 2.62% from 930,946 tons in the prior comparable period. Energy and chemicals - Europe diesel / IEA crude release talks (Reuters): EU governments discussed a French proposal for European countries to release 50 million barrels of diesel stockpiles alongside a 50 million-barrel crude release by IEA member countries. Discussions included that any further diesel release agreement should involve a U.S. commitment not to impose a unilateral diesel export ban. - China methanol (Jinlianchuang): September methanol output estimated at about 7.384 million metric tons, slightly higher m/m. October plant utilization is expected to rise, lifting output. September imports estimated at 430,000–450,000 metric tons (about 380,000 metric tons lower than August); October imports seen around 470,000 metric tons, subject to official customs data. - Natural rubber (ANRPC): Global demand in 2026 is forecast to rise 0.4% to 15.356 million tons (2025: 15.301 million). Global production is projected up 0.6% to 15.039 million tons (2025: 14.952 million). - Russia–Saudi talks: Interfax cited Novak as saying Russia and Saudi Arabia will discuss oil market conditions and 2026–2027 forecasts in Riyadh on Oct. 12. - OPEC+ policy: Quotas for November will remain unchanged, extending the current production levels for a second consecutive month. - Iraq shipments: The Iraqi Oil Tanker Company said 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude were transported through the Strait of Hormuz on a VLCC. - U.S. stance: President Trump said he asked Europe to release more diesel to ease fuel-price pressure and said the U.S. will not impose a diesel export ban. - Saudi OSP: Saudi Arabia set the November official selling price for Arab Light to Asia at a $5 discount to the Oman/Dubai average, $3 lower than the prior month. Metals and EV supply chain - Goldman Sachs highlighted CATL and Zhenli New Energy as key China battery sector targets, arguing market share should keep consolidating among scaled players with technology and cost advantages. CATL remains its top pick. - Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the China Passenger Car Association, citing World Automobile Organization statistics, said global auto sales totaled 63.43 million units from January to August 2026. - Malaysia gold: The country will remove a 10% import duty on certain gold products effective Nov. 1 (Finance Ministry document dated Oct. 2). This week: key data and events 1) Oct. 6, 04:00 — USDA weekly crop progress and harvest report. 2) Oct. 7, 00:00 — EIA October Short-Term Energy Outlook. 3) Oct. 7, 22:30 — EIA weekly crude and refined products inventories. 4) Oct. 8, 02:00 — Fed minutes from the September policy meeting. 5) Oct. 8 — Domestic commodity futures exchanges resume trading after the National Day holiday. 6) Oct. 8, 20:30 — U.S. weekly initial jobless claims. 7) Oct. 8, 20:30 — USDA weekly export sales report. 8) Oct. 10, 00:00 — USDA October WASDE report.