In December 2025, Bitcoin hovered near $85K, aligning with the average cost basis of U.S. spot BTC ETFs and placing many ETF holders around breakeven. At the same time, on-chain data showed persistent profit-taking by long-term holders, capitulation by short-term holders, and weak U.S. demand, all of which left this support area vulnerable to a deeper correction. With the Coinbase Premium Index in negative territory, market sentiment remained fragile as traders watched whether $85K would hold or give way.

On December 19, 2025, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ranked sixth among U.S. ETFs by 2025 net inflows, drawing more than $25 billion. Despite a roughly -9.6% YTD return, IBIT's inflows exceeded GLD's, underscoring unusually steady demand for spot Bitcoin exposure.

An X debate on December 20, 2025 highlighted differing Bitcoin views at Fundstrat after user Heisenberg shared screenshots noting Sean Farrell's $60,000–$65,000 H1 2026 base case and Tom Lee's potential path to $200,000. Client Cassian argued these reflect distinct mandates, and Tom Lee replied "Well stated," indicating agreement with that framing.

Bitcoin has fallen from above $126,000 in early October to around $88,000, while analysts debate whether this marks a new bear market or a deep bull-cycle correction. One analyst argues BTC must regain roughly $101,840–$102,000 to revive its bull phase, while another points to an oversold RSI below 30 for about three weeks as a setup for a potential explosive rebound. At the same time, whale balances have dropped by over 160,000 BTC in a year and spot ETFs saw nearly $500 million in outflows, adding downside risk if support at $83,300 fails.

Bitcoin demand growth slipped below trend from early October 2025, pointing to a potential bearish turn. This cycle saw three distinct demand waves, ETFs reduced holdings in Q4 2025, and price remains under the 365‑day moving average near $98,172. Derivatives funding rates fell to their lowest since December 2023, signaling weaker leveraged long appetite.

According to market commentator Crypto Waterman, Bitcoin’s final bull leg is likely to unfold gradually, with the parabolic phase lasting about one to two months and potentially occurring in the first quarter of 2026. He cautions that shakeouts and volatility may precede the move, and suggests accumulating on dips over the next two to three weeks while scaling out profits as gains compound.

As the weekend progresses, Bitcoin is trading in a tight range with low volatility, and analysts are focusing on short-term scalp setups around clearly defined price zones. Lennaert Snyder is watching resistance near $88,865 and $89,375 and support around $87,420 and $85,890 for potential long and short opportunities. Daan Crypto Trades notes that price has been largely unchanged for weeks and expects choppy action around the upcoming Christmas holidays.

CryptoQuant analysts report that Bitcoin demand growth has weakened since October 2025, as ETF holdings fell by about 24,000 BTC and the price dropped under its 365-day moving average near $98,172. They argue these shifts, alongside the lowest funding rates since December 2023, point to a developing bear market, even as some market observers still anticipate higher BTC prices in 2026 amid potential interest rate cuts.