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The Hindu Business Line

Nickel outlook tied to Indonesia’s 2026 RKAB quota plan as proposal targets 360 million tonnes

AI Market Summary
Nickel pricing is increasingly tied to Indonesia's 2026 RKAB quota decision, with a potential increase to ~360Mt implying a material loosening of supply constraints from 250–260Mt. Given Indonesia's ~60% share of refined nickel, a higher quota could quickly erase the INSG's projected 32kt 2026 deficit and reinforces downside risk to prices. Policy uncertainty and sulphuric acid constraints remain key offsets.
Impact level
● High
Affected assets
NCCONICKEL2USD/USDT+1.15%
AI Insight · NCCONICKEL2USD/USDTAI Insight
▼ Bearish
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⚠️ AI-generated insights are based on news content and are provided for informational purposes only. They do not constitute investment advice or represent the views of BingX. Investing involves risk. Please trade responsibly.
Indonesia is considering raising its 2026 RKAB nickel mining quota to around 360 million tonnes from 250-260 million tonnes, a move that would mark the first meaningful easing of supply restrictions this year if confirmed. Nickel is currently quoted at $16,950 a tonne, below earlier highs but above the 2025 average of $15,161/tonne. The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) forecasts a modest 32,000-tonne deficit in 2026, while BMI expects the market surplus to narrow to 154,000 tonnes. With Indonesia accounting for 60 per cent of global refined nickel supply, shifts in its policy remain a central driver for prices.
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