Bitcoin Steadies Around $64,000 After Fed Holds Rates; September Hike Still in Play

Bitcoin hovered near $64,000 after the US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29, broadly in line with expectations. The messaging, though, leaned more hawkish than the headline decision implied, with several officials pushing for tighter policy and Chair Kevin Warsh refusing to rule out a move at the September meeting. Dissent emerges inside the Fed The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9–3 to keep rates steady. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan dissented, calling for an immediate increase in the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. The split marked a clear shift from June, when all 12 voting members backed holding policy unchanged. In its statement, the Fed said economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace and labor market conditions remain stable. Officials also reiterated that inflation is still above the 2% goal, pointing to persistent price pressures, in part tied to energy-related supply disruptions. The implementation note left operational rates and balance-sheet policy unchanged. Warsh keeps focus on September At his press conference, Warsh pushed back against the idea that July was a routine pause, framing the meeting as an active evaluation of policy choices rather than the beginning of an easing cycle. He also played down June’s softer inflation reading, saying it mattered “not much” as policymakers remain focused on broader inflation trends. Warsh avoided explicitly signaling a September hike, but said higher rates could still be needed if inflation does not cool. He noted that financial conditions tightened between meetings, highlighting higher nominal and inflation-adjusted Treasury yields despite no change in the policy rate. Those market moves, he said, will be weighed alongside incoming data rather than treated as signals on their own. Attention now turns to the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium in August, where Warsh indicated he may offer additional guidance on the economic outlook ahead of September. Bitcoin reaction muted Bitcoin traded around $63,850 after the decision, moving within a roughly $63,516 to $64,640 range during the session. The subdued response suggests markets had largely priced in both the hold and a continued cautious stance on inflation. The meeting did little to brighten the near-term outlook for risk assets. If upcoming inflation and employment data reinforce the Fed’s hawkish tilt, bets on a September rate increase could firm, potentially keeping Treasury yields and the US dollar supported while restricting liquidity conditions that have historically benefited Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Summary The Fed held rates steady, but three policymakers voted for an immediate hike, underscoring a more hawkish divide within the committee. Bitcoin stayed near $64,000 as investors look to Jackson Hole and the still-open possibility of a September increase.