Bitcoin's short-term holders return to profit as exchange inflows signal rising sell pressure

Huoxing Finance reported that on August 24, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin's sharp rebound pushed a growing share of short-term holders (STH) back into the black. The portion of STH supply in profit jumped to 74.9% on August 17 from 26.1%, implying nearly three-quarters of addresses that were previously underwater have regained profitability. At the same time, net profit/loss flows from STHs to exchanges flipped positive, reaching 28,600 BTC on August 24 and clearing the closely watched 25,000 BTC threshold. Data also show that once STHs' average realized gain turned positive, the amount of BTC sent to exchanges rose markedly, pointing to increasing potential sell pressure. Adler noted that if this indicator stays above 25,000 BTC while Bitcoin's upside momentum cools, the likelihood of short-term profit-taking and distribution pressure could build. The combination of a fast recovery in STH profitability and higher exchange inflows suggests a market rebound unfolding alongside a growing risk of selling. Looking ahead, the analysis said that if the profit supply ratio pushes above 90% as price momentum weakens, the odds of localized overheating rise. If exchange inflows retreat toward zero while the profit supply ratio holds above 50%, the setup would more likely resemble a healthier consolidation phase.