Iran Weighs 10-Day Ceasefire Offer as Strait and Supply Risks Stay Elevated

Iran has received a proposed 10-day ceasefire, as tensions remain high after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Tehran would "pay a price" if any U.S. military personnel are killed. Key chokepoints for energy and trade are in focus, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Bab el-Mandeb is a critical route for Saudi crude exports of 4.9 million barrels per day shipped through the Red Sea. Supply disruptions have also widened. The CPC oil terminal on the Black Sea has halted operations, raising concerns over knock-on effects for energy and food flows. In rates markets, former New York Fed President William Dudley said higher energy prices could intensify pressure for interest-rate hikes, while Morgan Stanley expects policy rates to stay unchanged for the full year. U.S. money market funds, which manage more than $8 trillion in assets, have been shortening duration, boosting allocations to overnight repurchase agreements and floating-rate bonds. Investors are tracking the response to the 10-day ceasefire proposal, any Houthi moves targeting Saudi vessels, and updates on efforts to restore CPC terminal operations.