Kalshi settles $3.32M Spotify chart market after alleged stream manipulation clouds result

Kalshi has finalized settlement of a $3.32 million prediction market tied to Spotify’s U.S. Daily Chart, despite trader Caleb Davies urging the platform to delay payout while law enforcement reviewed suspected artificial streaming activity. The contract tracked which artist would top Spotify’s U.S. Daily Chart. Davies said Malcolm Todd's track "Earrings" jumped about 70% in a single day and hit No. 1 on June 29. In the days leading up to the disputed data, open interest in "Earrings"-related contracts climbed from roughly $2,000 to more than $70,000, according to Davies. Robert DeNault, Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, said only Spotify could determine whether the plays reflected real listening or manipulation. Kalshi settled the market minutes after that response. The next day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from "Earrings"' cumulative totals. Under the revised figures, the song would have placed fourth—not first—on June 29. Spotify later asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove Spotify branding and said neither platform has any partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the branding and updated its language. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said Kalshi is in contact with Spotify and has opened an investigation. Kalshi has not disclosed findings, reversed the settlement, or announced any compensation.