CLARITY Act's 2026 Passage Chances Slide to 31%35% as Ethics Fight Intensifies

Washington negotiations over the long-awaited CLARITY Act are back in flux, with a new round of ethics proposals and political friction threatening the bill's prospects of becoming law this year. Prediction markets have marked down the odds sharply, putting the probability of passage in 2026 at roughly 31%35%, far below the near-70% highs seen earlier in the year. Eleanor Terrett wrote on X that supporters are heading into what she described as a "high-stakes waiting game" over the weekend, as the White House weighs an ethics counteroffer that would involve a state attorney general. The dispute centers on a key remaining sticking point: whether state attorneys general should keep authority to enforce certain ethics provisions involving federal officials. Bipartisan talks between Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego are ongoing. Both lawmakers argue the legislation needs a tougher ethics package than the one floated by the White House and two Senate Republicans in late July. Citing three sources familiar with the discussions, Terrett said the earlier offer failed to win support from Tillis, Gallego, and other Democrats. Their preferred approach would allow state attorneys general to sue the Department of Justice if it declines to enforce ethics laws against federal officials. Another point of contention is the duration of the White House's ethics framework, which would remain in effect through January 2029, with limited clarity on what would follow. With the Senate set to begin its August recess next week, analysts and market observers see a narrowing legislative window for 2026. That timing pressure has contributed to the continued drift lower in prediction-market odds. If lawmakers don't advance the bill before the break, expectations could weaken further as attention pivots toward the midterm elections. Crypto industry leaders have broadly backed the measure over the past year. Michael Saylor, chairman of the world's largest corporate bitcoin holder, reiterated his support over the last 24 hours, saying bitcoin will succeed regardless of the bill while arguing that "America needs clarity for digital assets." "I support advancing the CLARITY Act through bipartisan work to establish clear, durable rules, protect property rights, promote innovation, and strengthen American capital markets. Bitcoin will succeed with or without legislation, but America needs clarity for digital assets," Saylor wrote on July 31, 2026. The story was originally published by CryptoPotato.