On 21 December 2025, Bitcoin was trading near $88,296 and on course to finish the year with a negative yearly candle. Long-term price records indicate the asset has never logged two consecutive red yearly closes, with past down years such as 2014, 2018, and 2022 each followed by recoveries. If this pattern persists, the current setback could again precede a rebound after 2025, although future performance remains uncertain.

Several major crypto research desks outlined sharply different Bitcoin projections for 2026, with targets ranging from a pullback toward $60K–$65K to a potential move toward $250K. Around $23 billion in BTC options expiring on 26 December and recent ETF outflows near $500 million could shape short‑term volatility around the $85K–$90K range.

After reaching the $120,000-$125,000 range in October 2025 and then dropping to the mid-$80,000s, Bitcoin is trading around $87,700 as traders eye profit-taking into January. Historical monthly data show January has often delivered positive returns for BTC, with notable gains in 2020, 2023 and 2025, even though some past years posted steep losses. The analysis suggests that if BTC enters January below its 2025 high and under the $90,000 mark, the greater risk could be exiting too late rather than too early.

On Sunday, Bitcoin hovered near $88,000 into the weekly close as traders positioned for volatility. Some analysts outlined a relief rally toward $98,000–$100,000 and even $150,000 targets, while others warned of a slide toward the $70,000–$72,000 zone amid rising Binance inflows and a technical break below $90,000.

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan anticipates Bitcoin will set new all-time highs in 2026, even as the current market appears bearish. He argues that the traditional four-year cycle is weakening, while institutional adoption, lower volatility, and reduced correlation with equities are reshaping BTC's market profile.

Analysts say Bitcoin has likely shifted into a bear phase as demand expansion stalled after October 2025. Institutional exposure softened, with ETF holdings dropping by roughly 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, while perpetual funding rates fell to late 2023 levels and price slipped below the 365-day moving average, keeping near-term pressure on BTC.

A weekly analysis outlines a bear cycle for Bitcoin with a historically small 55% drawdown from the all‑time high, implying a potential bottom near $56,000. The view reflects softer demand, fading derivatives risk appetite, and U.S. spot ETFs turning net sellers in Q4 2025, with intermediate support anticipated around $70,000.

On December 20, quant trader CryptoOnchain outlined a bearish Bitcoin setup on X, citing price stalling near the Point of Control and RSI divergence. The analyst said a drop toward $70,000–$73,000 is likely, with potential reversal signals around $72,000. Bitcoin trades near $88,330, and holding that zone could be crucial to avoid deeper correction.