Soft U.S. jobs figures and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows help BTC rebound

BlockBeats reported on July 3 that weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data helped calm fears of additional Federal Reserve tightening, lifting appetite for risk assets. Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, said the release challenged the view that the U.S. labor market is re-accelerating. Rate markets continue to price in hikes this year, but the implied probability fell to 77% from about 85% before the data. The odds of a hike this month also slid to roughly 18% from around 30%. Flow data showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $224 million of net inflows on Thursday, snapping a 10-day run of outflows. The move points to bargain hunting returning after about $2.4 billion in redemptions. QCP Capital said options-market strain has eased alongside the spot recovery. One-week at-the-money implied volatility dropped from the mid-40% range to the high-30% range, and the term structure shifted back to a positive spread after inverting during the selloff. QCP added that the jobs report is not uniformly dovish. While payroll growth missed expectations, faster wage gains, a lower unemployment rate and resilient consumer spending point to tighter labor supply rather than weaker demand, leaving the Fed room to keep a hawkish bias. QCP noted markets have pushed expected rate hikes back from September to December, but cross-asset moves have yet to confirm a true policy pivot. Investors are watching the July 14 CPI, July 15 PPI, and the month-end FOMC meeting.