War-driven supply shocks and peace hopes swing LME metals in H1 2026
In the first half of 2026, the Iran war disrupted Persian Gulf supply chains, with missile attacks from February forcing aluminium smelter outages and cutting regional output at an annualised rate of 2 million tonnes. LME aluminium inventories fell to just over 400,000 tonnes, a multi-year low, while the three-month price reached a four-year high of $3,787.50 a tonne in early June. Copper, zinc and other LME metals also rallied, supported by a geopolitics-driven premium and shifting supply-demand dynamics.