Aluminium producers eye stronger profits as LME prices hold above prewar levels

LME aluminium prices are down 12% from early June highs, but remain above prewar levels. The market is expected to show a 0.15 mt structural deficit in 2025, driven by China’s production caps and Guinea’s proposed curbs on bauxite exports. Indian producers including Hindalco, Nalco and Vedanta Aluminium Metal are seen benefiting from firm prices, a weaker rupee and new capacity coming online. Nalco’s earnings outlook is also supported by its 1 million-tonne-per-annum alumina refinery, which is expected to begin commercial production by November.