Brazil rain risks lift coffee prices as ICE arabica stocks hit a 6.75-month low

Moderate to heavy rainfall across Brazil’s main coffee-growing regions this week is stoking concern that the 2026 harvest could be delayed. ICE inventories have tightened, with arabica stocks dropping to a 6.75-month low and robusta inventories near a two-year low. Weather risk is also tied to El Niño, with NOAA putting the probability of a “Super El Niño” this year at 67%, which could disrupt the 2026/27 flowering period. Despite USDA projecting record Brazil output in 2026/27, near-term weather disruption and low inventories are providing tangible supply support for coffee futures.