Goldman sees copper-to-aluminium ratio hitting record 4.5:1 in 2026 as substitution accelerates
AI Market Summary
News highlights a softer 2026 copper outlook amid demand headwinds: late-2025 China refined copper demand fell ~8%, data-center grid constraints and permitting delays slow near-term offtake, and substitution toward cheaper aluminium is accelerating as the copper/aluminium ratio is projected to reach a record ~4.5:1. Long-run AI and electrification demand plus supply deficits remain supportive, but the near-term narrative shifts toward moderation and higher dispersion in forecasts.
Impact level
● Medium
Affected assets
NCCOCOPPER2USD/USDT+0.11%
AI Insight · NCCOCOPPER2USD/USDTAI Insight
● Neutral
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Soaring copper prices are pushing downstream users to switch faster to aluminium, and Goldman Sachs forecasts the copper-to-aluminium price ratio will reach a record 4.5:1 in 2026 while aluminium could fall to $2,350 a tonne. Chinese refined copper demand fell about 8% in late 2025, while data-centre grid bottlenecks and permitting delays are weighing on near-term copper demand. Longer term, AI data centres could consume 1.1 million tonnes of copper a year by 2030 and UBS estimates a 2026 deficit above 400,000 tonnes, supporting a bullish structural view even as 2026 copper price forecasts have moderated.
