Falling Dubai and Murban spot differentials open arbitrage for Middle East crude into the U.S. and Europe

Easing shipping-risk concerns around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed Dubai and Murban spot premiums into discounts, creating an arbitrage opportunity for Middle East crude into the U.S. and Europe. At least five supertankers carrying UAE Murban crude are heading to Europe, while about 15 million barrels of crude from the UAE, Oman and Iraq are bound for the United States. Dubai and Murban futures curves also flipped into contango for the first time since the war began on February 28, signaling reduced worries over near-term supply.