UBS shifts first Fed rate-cut call to March and June 2027 on expected hawkish FOMC signals

UBS Global Wealth Management has pushed back its expectation for the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut to March and June 2027 from December 2026. The bank said it expects this week’s FOMC meeting to strike a hawkish tone under new Chair Kevin Warsh, including in the statement and dot plot. Markets are pricing in about a 42% chance of a Fed rate hike in December.