Strong El Niño risk raises exposure for cocoa, robusta coffee and sugar crops

Weather agencies have confirmed a strong El Niño has formed, with a 63% chance of intensifying into a “super El Niño.” The shift is expected to bring floods followed by drought in West Africa’s key cocoa belt, drought in Vietnam and Indonesia’s robusta regions, and India’s sugar-growing season rainfall at 90% of average, while Brazil’s sugar crop could benefit from wetter conditions later on. Cocoa prices in 2024 surged to $12,000 a metric ton after similar weather disruptions, underscoring the supply risk to major tropical soft commodities.