Report: U.S. Set to Allow Iran to Resume Oil Exports Immediately

Good morning. It's Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Here's your Futures Morning Rush market brief. Top headlines - China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In May, value-added output at large industrial firms rose 4.5% year over year in real terms, 0.4 percentage points faster than the prior month. - U.S. President Donald Trump said on June 16 that the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding online and that talks have moved into a second phase he described as "easier than the first." He added the U.S. will not invest any funds in Iran. - The China Iron and Steel Industry Association's Circulation Division, together with more than 40 provincial and municipal steel distribution groups, issued an "Initiative Against Internal Competition in the Steel Circulation Industry," urging the sector to resist below-cost sales and malicious order-poaching. - World Gold Council: 45% of surveyed central banks expect to increase gold holdings over the next 12 months, up 2 percentage points from a year earlier. - Xinhua: Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will be fully reopened before June 19. - Media reports: The U.S. will allow Iran to immediately resume oil exports. - Saudi media published what it said were the terms of a 14-point U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. Macro & policy - NBS detail: In May, industrial output rose 0.40% month over month. January–May industrial output increased 5.4% year over year. - UBS Global Wealth Management shifted its expected timing for Federal Reserve rate cuts to March and June 2027 and no longer expects any cuts this year. UBS now sees 25 bp cuts in March and June next year, versus its prior call for cuts in December 2026 and March 2027. - Maersk adjusted Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for Far East–Northern Europe and Far East–Mediterranean routes: $750 per 20-foot container and $1,500 per 40-foot or 45-foot container (Far East excluding Korea). - Saudi media's 14-point memorandum summary included: an immediate and permanent cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon, effective from the signing date; commitments by Iran and the U.S. and its allies in the current conflict to refrain from future hostile actions, threats, or use of force; and pledges to respect sovereignty and territorial integrity and not interfere in each other's internal affairs. A final agreement would confirm these and other provisions. Global futures moves - Precious metals: COMEX gold +0.03% to $4,353.00/oz; COMEX silver -0.08% to $70.12/oz. - Energy: Front-month WTI -5.11% to $76.62/bbl; front-month Brent -4.61% to $79.34/bbl. - Base metals (LME): lead +0.63% to $1,982.5/ton; copper +0.52% to $13,816.5/ton; aluminum +0.34% to $3,391.0/ton; nickel +0.25% to $17,955.0/ton; tin -0.49% to $55,030.0/ton; zinc -0.79% to $3,561.5/ton. Ferrous & building materials - NBS property market (Jan–May 2026): Total floor space under construction by developers was 5,487,750 million sq m, down 12.3% year over year. Residential construction area was 3,808,300 million sq m, down 12.6%. New starts totaled 179,290 million sq m, down 22.6%. - Mysteel satellite data: June 8–14, iron ore inventories at seven major Australian and Brazilian ports totaled 13.251 million tons, up 225,000 tons from the prior period, still below the Q2 average. - NBS steel output: May steel production was 123.03 million tons, down 2.8% year over year; January–May totaled 592.99 million tons, down 1.5%. May crude steel was 84.36 million tons, down 2.7%; January–May crude steel was 415.53 million tons, down 3.9%. - Steel distribution groups reiterated calls to curb below-cost dumping, malicious bid-snatching, regulate export order, and avoid trade frictions driven by aggressive overseas bidding. Agriculture - National Grain and Oil Information Center (as of June 12): Imported soybean stocks at major oil mills were 7.26 million tons (+430,000 w/w; +1.42 million m/m; +660,000 y/y; +1.45 million vs the three-year average). Soybean meal stocks were 570,000 tons (+100,000 w/w; +330,000 m/m; +150,000 y/y; -80,000 vs the three-year average). - NDRC Price Monitoring Center (as of June 10, 2026): Live hog price 9.71 CNY/kg; corn 2.42 CNY/kg; hog-to-grain ratio 4.01. Versus June 3: hog price -0.51%, corn -0.82%, ratio +0.25%. - China Feed Industry Association: May industrial feed output was 28.9 million tons, flat m/m and +1.6% y/y. Corn share in compound feed was 38.0%; soybean meal share in compound and concentrated feed was 13.1%. - European Commission (as of June 14): EU 2025/26 palm oil imports 2.73 million tons (2.87 million last year); EU 2025/26 soybean imports 13.21 million tons (14.02 million last year). - Brazil's Anec: June soybean exports seen at 15.31 million metric tons (prior estimate 14.38 million). June soybean meal exports seen at 2.24 million metric tons (prior estimate 2.31 million). Energy & chemicals - NBS: May flat glass output 75.48 million weight boxes, down 6.3% year over year. January–May output 370.41 million weight boxes, down 6.3%. - Goldman Sachs cut its Brent outlook to $80 for Q4 2026 (from $90) and to $75 for the 2027 average (from $80). It sees WTI at $75 in Q4 2026 and $70 in 2027. - Sources: Qatar plans to ramp LNG output quickly after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, aiming to restore most export capacity within two months. - Commerzbank expects Brent to stay elevated into year-end, targeting about $85/bbl. Commodities Research head Thu Lan Nguyen said negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over a new nuclear deal could be very rocky. - The Wall Street Journal: Sources said the deal would allow Iran to immediately resume oil and fuel exports as an upfront economic incentive to help ease tensions. Iran would still not gain immediate access to billions of dollars in overseas frozen assets. Metals - SMM: Major primary lead smelters in central China plan annual maintenance from late July to August. Lead ingot output could be reduced by about 9,000 tons per month; supply from July to September is expected to remain below normal, with full production likely by end-September. - Mysteel: On June 16, Capesize freight from Brazil/West Africa to China fell $1.9 per wet metric ton to $32.609/wmt. Some bauxite market participants said shipowners quoted as low as $31/wmt, back to mid-April levels. - World Gold Council reiterated: 45% of surveyed central banks expect to increase gold holdings over the next 12 months, up 2 percentage points year over year. WGC said central banks remain upbeat on gold and recent price declines have not changed their view. - Guangzhou Futures Exchange: During the 2026 Dragon Boat Festival holiday, price limits and margin requirements for all listed futures contracts will remain unchanged. Member firms were asked to strengthen client risk warnings and market risk management. Research notes - Guangfa Futures on polysilicon: Futures prices have dropped sharply as earlier enthusiasm around supply-side "anti-cutthroat" measures and energy-efficiency metrics faded, pulling futures back toward spot. The market still faces oversupply, with additional supply pressure during the wet season. June output may exceed 90,000 tons; weekly output rose by 0.07 million tons to 238,000 tons. Demand has not been materially affected by energy-efficiency thresholds and remains consistent with expectations for production growth. - CITIC Futures on coal & coke: Coking coal mine restarts continued and accelerated, while sentiment cooled as accident-related disruptions faded. A seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented and spot prices remain firm. Pig iron output is still relatively high, supporting underlying demand, though higher coke prices may curb downstream buying. The exchange cut margin requirements for coke and raised trading limits for delivery-month contracts for the first time since 2021, potentially boosting coke futures activity. Coking coal has faced near-month delivery pressure; after a two-day correction, futures have returned to more normal levels and may re-anchor to fundamentals. While production is resuming, medium- to long-term supply constraints remain a focus this year given prior overproduction and safety risks. Key calendar - June 17, 16:00: IEA monthly oil market report. - June 17 (time TBA): WBMS global April metals supply and demand conditions. - June 18, 02:00: Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections; 02:30 press conference.